Key takeaways
- Macquarie forecasts more than $50 billion in global betting on the 2026 World Cup, compared to $35 billion for Qatar 2022.
- This is the first World Cup where Kalshi and Polymarket have taken action in the United States, amid a live jurisdictional fight with the CFTC.
- Crypto sportsbooks Stake, Betfury and 1win have launched World Cup campaigns worth millions in rewards.
The first World Cup of the prediction market era
The 2026 World Cup, which kicked off in Mexico City on June 11, is poised to become the biggest betting event in history. According to the BBC, Macquarie analyst Chad Beynon predicts that global betting could exceed $50 billion (around $500 million per match on average), up from $35 billion for the 2022 tournament in Qatar. This jump follows the expanded format: 48 teams playing 104 games in the United States, Canada and Mexico, which is 40 more games than four years ago.
There is also a difference in where the money goes. This is the first modern World Cup to take place in which most of the United States can legally bet – about 65% of the population, up from about 40% in 2022 – and the first in which regulated prediction markets operate alongside sports betting. Kalshi and Polymarket list contracts tied to World Cup events, and newcomers like FIFA partner ADI Predictstreet have launched soccer products tailored to the tournament. Despite this, the United States is expected to account for less than 10% of the global budget, or around $3 billion.
This push comes amid a jurisdictional battle. The CFTC proposed a rule on June 10 defining sporting event contracts as “gaming” while allowing most of them, even as several states are suing Kalshi for what they call illegal sports betting. It remains an open question whether the volume of World Cup contracts cements prediction markets as fixtures or gives ammunition to regulators.
The cryptocurrency gaming industry treats the tournament as a customer acquisition event. Stake launched a global football campaign led by Iker Casillas, Sergio Aguero, Eden Hazard and Patrice Evra; Betfury Launched $600,000 World Cup Event; and 1win is hosting a tournament with $5 million in prizes. This reflects the model Macquarie expects industry-wide: use the World Cup to acquire punters, then convert one-off punters into repeat customers – a 2-5% increase in operators’ profits through 2027, with Fanduel parent Flutter best placed. Flutter CEO Peter Jackson called it “the biggest betting opportunity we’ve ever seen.”
Not everyone celebrates. Les Bernal of Stop Predatory Gambling warned that this wave could push hundreds of thousands of people into deep debt, saying that “99 out of 100 sports bettors lose money in the long term” and that the industry model relies on addicted gamblers. A UK study by the National Center for Social Research found that 79% of gambling revenue comes from the top 10% of spenders. FIFA, meanwhile, has removed gambling sponsors from the names of World Cup host stadiums.
