JOLTS job offers — Tuesday March 31, 2026
Yesterday’s survey of job openings and labor turnover confirmed that labor market dynamics, characterized by low hiring and low layoffs, remained firmly intact through February. Job openings stood at 6.9 million, a figure that was little changed over the month – the more precise figure being 6.882 million, down 358,000 from January’s upwardly revised figure of 7.24 million and slightly below the consensus forecast of 6.918 million.
The main story was in the hiring. Hires fell to 4.8 million, down 498,000 in February, and down 387,000 for the year. The hiring rate fell to 3.1%, the lowest since April 2020. This rate is comparable to late 2009 and early 2010, when the unemployment rate was around 10%.
The gap between posted job openings and actual filled positions has continued to widen, raising questions about how much of those 6.9 million postings reflect true short-term hiring intent.
The quit rate remained at 1.9% in February, its eighth consecutive month at or below 2.0%, reflecting a workforce that does not feel able to take risks. Layoffs and layoffs remained unchanged at 1.7 million, with a notable rise in retail trade (+72,000), partially offset by a decline in non-durable goods manufacturing (-26,000).
Overall, yesterday’s report showed an already cooling labor market ahead of the arrival of this week’s broader macroeconomic data. Departures outpaced hiring in February, meaning payrolls contracted on a net basis, even without an increase in layoffs. This context sits directly behind Friday’s NFP print. Relevant markets on Kraken Pro: BTC/USD spot and margin pairs, ETH/USD and dollar correlated pairs.
ISM Manufacturing PMI – Wednesday April 1, 2026
The first working day of April presents the ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index for March, the first major business survey conducted entirely within the framework of the post-IEEPA pricing environment. This context is very important.
After the Supreme Court struck down the IEEPA-based tariffs in February 2026, the administration replaced them with a 10% global surcharge under Section 122 of the Commerce Act, effective February 24. This change has created a new cost environment for manufacturers, but also a new layer of uncertainty: the Section 122 rate could reach 15%, 24 states are taking legal action, and new Section 301 investigations were launched in March. Manufacturers are navigating all of this simultaneously.
Traders will pay particular attention to the Prices Paid subindex, a direct readout of input cost pressures, and the New Orders subindex, which signals futures demand. If new orders weaken while prices remain high, that would indicate a pattern of stagflationary pressures that tends to complicate the Fed’s decision-making and often generates volatility across assets.
If manufacturing activity surprises on the upside, this could be interpreted as evidence that companies are absorbing the tariff transition without significant demand destruction.
A reading above 50 indicates expansion; the index has spent much of the past 18 months below this level. Markets concerned: BTC/USD, ETH/USD and macro-sensitive spot pairs.
Nonfarm jobs in the United States — Friday, April 3, 2026
This is the release traders have been preparing for all week. The Bureau of Labor Statistics has confirmed that the March 2026 employment situation will be released Friday at 8:30 a.m. ET.
Context is everything here. February’s figure stood at -92,000, the largest monthly decline in four months, driven by a 28,000 drop in health care employment (attributed to strikes), a drop of 11,000 in the information sector, and a continued reduction of 10,000 in federal civil service employment.
The revisions also reduced the December and January total by 69,000. The cumulative picture is one of a labor market under sustained pressure from multiple directions: federal workforce reductions, tariff-related headwinds in manufacturing, and sector-specific disruptions.
The March figure will be the first full pay statement read since the Section 122 rate was replaced on February 24. Markets will be watching to see whether February’s decline is a month-long anomaly caused by health care strikes, or the start of a more sustained deterioration.
Average hourly wages will also be examined, and in the context of persistent services inflation and a tariff-driven cost environment, wage growth data directly informs the Fed’s assessment of inflation.
Scenarios to Watch: If March shows a significant recovery into positive territory, markets could interpret this as confirmation that February was noisy. If payrolls deteriorate further or remain negative, it would significantly change the debate over the path of rates. Neither outcome is predetermined. Markets covered: All major Kraken Pro spot and margin pairs, BTC/USD, ETH/USD and futures.
ISM Services PMI — Friday April 3, 2026
NFP Day is also ISM Services Day. The ISM Services PMI for March is released at 10:00 a.m. ET the same morning as the jobs report, meaning traders are facing two major data points in the same two-hour window.
The February services figure stood at 56.1, its highest since August 2022, with business activity at 59.9 and new orders at 58.6. Services account for about 80% of the U.S. economy and the price index, at 63%, has remained high for 15 consecutive months. This combination, strong activity and persistent price pressure, has kept the Fed in a cautious stance.
If March services data remains close to February’s as NFP weakens, traders will face a truly mixed macro signal: resilient consumer-oriented activity and a slowing labor market. This divergence has historically created conditions in which rate expectations and risk assets move in a non-linear manner.
Pricing policy: the fifth invisible data point of the week
None of this week’s data exists in isolation. Each release arrives in a pricing environment that remains legally contested and virtually unresolved. The Section 122 global surcharge of 10%, which took effect on February 24, replaced the IEEPA rates but could face the same legal challenges.
At the beginning of March, 24 states filed a blocking request. New Section 301 investigations were launched in mid-March, covering several major trading partners. Refunds of previously collected IEEPA rates are being processed, but the timing is uncertain.
Markets view each macroeconomic data point not only as a signal about the economy, but also as an indicator of whether the pricing environment will tighten, loosen, or destabilize further. Traders following this week’s releases should view the pricing environment as a constant amplifier of volatility risk. This is not a period for low signal readings on any data point.
Final context
Four high-signal emissions in four days is an unusually dense window. The combination of JOLTS, ISM Manufacturing, NFP and ISM Services, all arriving against the backdrop of an unresolved tariff regime and a labor market that posted its first negative monthly figure in recent months, gives traders a significant amount to deal with.
Structured thinking about each data point and how it interacts with others, rather than reacting to a single number in isolation, is what differentiates tactical positioning from reactive trading.
This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past market behavior is not a reliable indicator of future results. Trading involves risks.
