Despite recent major developments in the cryptography industry, the market has just published its lowest performance in the first row in years – but a cryptographic analyst has been on several catalysts that could make T2 more promising.
“Frustrating. This is the best word to describe the last quarter,” said Bitwise investment director Matt Hougan, in a recent market report, describing the first quarter of “worst quarter in crypto history”.
Bitcoin and Ether took an unusual blow in Q1
Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH), the two largest cryptocurrencies by market capitalization, experienced price reductions of 11.82% and 45.41%, respectively, in T1 2025 – a quarter which has historically seen solid results for the two assets. Since 2013, the first quarter is on average the second quarter of Bitcoin on average (51.2%) and historically the best for Ether (77.4%), depending on Coinglass Data.
Hougan underlined some key catalysts that could help crypto to provide the upward increase in the second.
He noted the increase in the global money supply, which “after years of tightening, central banks around the world signal an evolution towards monetary easing and the expansion of M2”.
“Historically, these conditions have been favorable to risk assets, in particular for digital assets,” said Hougan. Echoing a similar feeling, Pav Hundal, principal analyst of Australian Crypto Exchange Swyftx, told Cintelegraph in February that “at normal times, global relaxation measures are a leading lead indicator for crypto”.
More recently, on April 14, analyst Colin Talks Crypto said: “Global M2 remained at an ATH for 3 consecutive days.” Bitcoin moves in the direction of Global M2 83% of the time, wrote the economist Lyn Alden in a research report in September.
Hougan has also said that “clean scanning of pro-reglement regulations” in the United States could be another bullish factor for the cryptography market. “It’s the long tail of regulatory clarity that nobody talks about, and it’s just to start,” said Hougan.
The increase in stablecoin assets under management can also be a positive indicator that more upwards will come this year to the cryptography market. Hougan said that during the first quarter, Stablecoin’s assets under management increased to “a summit of more than $ 218 million”.
“The growing adoption of the floors will benefit from the adjacent sectors, including Defi and other crypto requests,” he said.
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The firm also said that “geopolitical chaos” seen in the world economy in the first quarter of 2025, mainly after the inauguration of US President Donald Trump through his prices, “pushing global investors to reassess their portfolios”.
This only comes from days after Hougan recently reiterated its prediction that Bitcoin could increase by around 138% compared to its current price of $ 84,080 by the end of the year.
“In December, Bitwise predicted that Bitcoin would end the year at $ 200,000. I still think it’s at stake,” said Hougan.
Meanwhile, Crypto Exchange Coinbase recently declared: “When the feeling is finally reset, it probably occurs fairly quickly, and we remain constructive for the second half of 2025.”
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