A crypto analyst has identified an eight-year convergence pattern on the Ethereum (ETH)-Bitcoin (BTC) trading pairs chart, suggesting it could signal the long-awaited start of an altcoin season. Although rumors of an altcoin season have circulated in the crypto space since before 2025, such a phase has yet to materialize, highlighting the persistence volatility of alternative cryptocurrencies throughout this bull market. Despite this prolonged delay, the analyst says the new convergence structure could become a catalyst that would fuel an altcoin season even more powerful than that observed in 2021.
Ethereum Chart Structure Signals Powerful Altcoin Season
Crypto analyst CW has presented new technical analysis suggesting a major altcoin season in this cycle. Supported by a multi-year graphic structure, the analysis focuses on the ETH/BTC trading pair and describes a unique convergence model that has been developing since mid-2017.
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In his paper on the current bull cycle of the market. The structure is visible on the weekly chart in the form of a large descending triangle or wedge that started when ETH/BTC peaked around 0.16. Since this high, the pair has compressed between a descending resistance line and a flat horizontal support level near the 0.020 area.
The price action in the chart shows that ETH/BTC reached this high during the 2021 bull market but failed to break the upper descending trendline of the convergent pattern. Following this, the pair fell sharply and continued its downward trend, now placing itself at the extreme edge of the convergence pattern, near the 0.029 level.
This suggests that ETH/BTC is approaching its final phase near the top of the descending triangle. The narrowing distance between resistance and support suggests that the market may be at a critical juncture. CW suggests that a breakout from this point could end the trading pair’s eight-year squeeze within the convergence pattern. If this happens, it could signal a major shift in strength from BTC to ETH, and finally to the broader altcoin market, marking the potential start of an altcoin season in 2026.
Altcoin Season 2026 Will Surpass 2021 Boom
CW highlighted in its post that the altcoin season it forecasts in this bull cycle could surpass the strength of the 2021 cycle, mirroring the explosive scale of the 2017 cycle. It argued that many investors underestimate the power the running of the bulls 2017 was, noting that it generated broader and more aggressive gains in the altcoin market than the more selective 2021 rally.
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In a previous analysis, C.W. common a separate chart from CryptoQuant, adding even more weight to its outlook for a 2026 altcoin season. The chart, which tracks the CEX volume ratio of non-BTC assets to Bitcoin, excluding stablecoins, compares the current market setup to the 2021 altcoin season.
During both periods, altcoin trading activity on centralized exchanges was consistently higher than Bitcoin volume. However, CW notes that this activity lasts much longer in 2026 than in 2021. He believes that this sustained volume, coupled with a potential breakdown in the current ETH/BTC convergence model, strengthens the case for a powerful altcoin season in 2026.
Featured image from Freepik, graphic from Tradingview.com
