Analysts expect Monday to be a “hectic” trading session.
The question, however, is whether this is the most diplomatic way of describing what might actually happen.
Considering the ongoing developments surrounding the Iran-US conflict, the word “hectic” seems like an understated way to describe what the US stock market could face on Monday, April 20.
As a reminder, the last 72 hours have been very volatile.
From the strengthening of the ceasefire to US President Donald Trump’s message about reopening the Strait of Hormuz, followed by the Iranian government’s immediate rejection of his claims, the crypto market has mirrored this exact sequence.
Bitcoin (BTC) briefly rose above $78,000, only to return to $75,000. This raises an important question: where does crypto go next?
At the macro level, price action suggests a growing downward asymmetry.
As the chart above shows, market odds now place a 44% chance that U.S. oil prices will return to the $100 per barrel level this month. as Iran once again closes the Strait of Hormuz.
Notably, during the last trading session, oil prices closed down 5.9% following President Trump’s announcement.
The result?
A strong rotation towards risk, with a strong recovery in US stocks. The S&P500, for example, reached a record high, rising 1.2%. The crypto market followed suit with a 1.96% jump in the same window.
In short, capital shifted to risk assets as oil prices fell and immediate supply concerns temporarily eased.
This brings the “eventful” narrative back into focus. With markets expecting a shock to U.S. stocks after a weekend of major developments, the question is: is the volatility about to spill over to cryptocurrencies as well?
Crypto Enters Monday, Driven by Liquidity and Conviction
In less than 48 hours, the crypto market erased all the gains made after surpassing the $2.5 trillion level.
From a technical perspective, the market is responding to growing macroeconomic uncertainty, with nearly $70 billion flowing out of crypto over the same period. With no confirmation of peace talks, the downward move could further develop, especially as U.S. stocks remain vulnerable to a possible shake-up on Monday.
If this trend continues, nearly $8.8 billion in long Bitcoin positions could face liquidation risk if BTC returns to $67,000. Macroeconomic conditions and on-chain spot volume suggest this level remains a realistic downside target.
In this context, Michael Saylor’s latest message naturally begins to take on heightened significance.
From a flow perspective, the behavior of American investors seems aligned with Saylor’s positioning.
Bitcoin ETF inflows remain positive, while the Coinbase Premium Index continues its upward trend, signaling sustained spot demand in the United States.
The causal implication is twofold: either markets have not fully priced in the risk of a stock shakeout on Monday, or investor conviction remains strong enough to absorb macroeconomic-driven volatility, supported by Saylor’s recent X article.
Either way, belief matters. With no signs of the strait reopening soon, rising oil prices could trigger a shake-up in U.S. stocks. However, current crypto market flows suggest limited spillover risk. If this trend continues, capital could instead shift from stocks to crypto assets, making this a key trend to watch.
Final summary
- Geopolitical uncertainty and oil volatility could trigger a shake-up in stocks on Monday, increasing downward pressure on risky assets.
- Strong ETF inflows and spot demand in the United States suggest that capital may be moving into crypto rather than fully following stocks in a risk-averse move.
