Ripple believes strong institutional adoption could lead U.S. spot XRP ETFs to reach JPMorgan’s target of $4 billion to $8.4 billion in inflows.
In a recent reportThe blockchain company noted that the products surpassed $1 billion in entries within the first month of their launch. Now, packaged goods have seen cumulative inflows of over $1.50 billion and have accumulated over 769 million XRP.
More than 30 establishments, including Goldman SachsGet exposure to altcoin via ETF wrappers.
Interestingly, XRP ETF products have maintained these flows despite the broader pullback since October. Commenting on institutional rigidity despite volatility, Ripple said:
This suggests that institutions are making thoughtful allocation decisions and are not looking for short-term momentum.
In this context, Ripple estimates that JPMorgan’s projection is that XRP ETFs could attract between $4 billion and $8 billion in inflows in the first year. Since the first product launched in November, via Canary Capital’s XRPC, that would leave seven months to verify the projection.
If the base case scenario of $4 billion in inflows were achieved, this would translate into 3.15 times growth from the current $1.27 billion.
XRP ETF records highest weekly inflows since mid-January
That said, last week Spot XRP ETFs saw inflows of $55.4 million, the highest weekly inflows since mid-January. This survey the altcoin from $1.31 to a high of $1.5, a gain of over 14%.
However, at the time of writing, the altcoin has given back some of the gains and is trading at $1.4.
It is worth highlighting that realized cap, a key metric that tracks capital inflows into a token, also reinforced the positive projection shared by Ripple.
According to Glassnode data, XRP saw outflows of $4 billion, which began in February.
Assuming the market has bottomed, these would be the lowest capital outflows compared to previous bear markets. Notably, during the 2018 pullback, the altcoin lost $7 billion while the realized cap fell from $23 billion to $16 billion. During the 2022 crash, it fell from $34 billion to $26 billion, representing capital outflows of $8 billion.
As such, the 2026 pullback was half as small as the capital outflow seen in 2022. In other words, XRP was showing relative resilience this cycle. For Ripple, the “institutional era has begun” and will only continue at current levels.
But it remains to be seen whether XRP will remain resilient in case market sentiment deteriorates further.
Final summary
- Ripple was confident that spot XRP ETF inflows could increase 3x to $4 billion by the end of 2026.
- The altcoin has seen over $4 billion in capital outflows in 2026, but this figure remains small compared to past bear markets.
