Ethereum low prices could approaching a decisive turning point, according to a new technical analysis comparing the current structure of ETH with previous market cycles. The trend that formed before the 2017 parabolic run and again before the 2020 breakout is now reappearing in 2026, and the long-term chart shows a structure which could be the start of a phase that would push its price up to $8,000.
A cycle that has played out twice before
Ethereum has spent the last few months doing what most of the market has chosen to do. ignore: building. The main altcoin has largely underperformed compared to Bitcoin, but the weekly chart brings together the same structural sequence that preceded two of the biggest rallies in its price history.
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Technical analysis shows that ETH followed a recognizable four-phase sequence over the previous two cycles: a prolonged downtrend, a compression phase and falling volatility, an exit from the compression zone, and a vertical rally. In 2017, this cycle produced a gain of approximately 17,581%. The 2020 iteration, starting from a similar squeeze structure, produced a roughly 4,348% rally at the height of the 2021 bull run.
The graph now shows a third instance of this structure. ETH bottomed around $1,800 in February 2026, a low that briefly fell below support before a recovery brought the price back above structure.
This sequence of a false breakdown followed by a rapid recovery and the formation of a higher low is precisely the type of price behavior that preceded the previous two cycles. The current squeeze is tighter than those that preceded it, with buyers defending support around $2,200 and sellers. stop rallies around $2,400, creating a build-up of pressure that should result in a rally.
Ethereum Price Chart. Source: @BladeDefi on X
Ethereum breakout is coming
The most interesting part of this setup is the difference between feeling and structure. Right now, sentiment indicates that ETH is weak. Ethereum has underperformed Bitcoin, particularly during periods when it struggled to maintain momentum above the $2,000 region. However, if the 2026 squeeze resolves similarly to that of 2017 and 2020, the projection is that the expansion phase would produce a significantly lower percentage gain than previous cycles, but still large enough to take ETH well into the five-digit range.
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The prediction is that Ethereum will break out of its lower range at $2,400, continue this run to break out from the higher resistance around $4,900, and then reach new price highs. This would see the Ethereum price reach at least $8,000, which, compared to the current trading range near $2,200, represents a gain of around 264%.
On the other hand, many market experts predict a rise in the price of Ethereum above $10,000. Key incoming catalysts for such a rally include the Glamsterdam upgrade, which could triple Ethereum’s layer 1 throughput and expected throughput adoption of the CLARITY law.
Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com
