Bloomberg senior strategist Mike McGlone renewed a gloomy forecast for Bitcoin (BTC), saying the market’s leading cryptocurrency could resume a prolonged decline that takes it back toward $10,000.
Why McGlone sees Bitcoin returning to $10,000
In a Thursday job On the social media platform
McGlone’s view, which he describes as a “bursting crypto bubble” scenario, is a minority position among market analysts who predict a Bitcoin floor this year as low as $38,000 in the worst-case scenario, much higher than the Bloomberg strategist’s price.
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If Bitcoin were to fall from its current price to $10,000, it would represent a decline of approximately 92%, taking into account the retracement already seen from its all-time high of $126,000. This would be significantly lower than the previous bear market low, around $15,000.
The idea that Bitcoin could return towards $10,000 runs into a common pattern observed previously. post-halving cycles. Historically, corrections following halvings have produced higher lows than previous cycles.
In this framework, a return to $10,000 would mark an unusually deep reversal, well below the low of the last bear market. Nonetheless, McGlone says significant structural and behavioral changes around the 2020-2021 period mean the market could return to an older norm centered around the $10,000 price.
Market concerns are growing
Beyond long-term projections, Bitcoin is now range-bound with limited directional confidence. The leader cryptocurrency was trading at $66,938 at the time of writing, down about 2.5% over the previous 24 hours.
Analysts point to heightened geopolitical tensions as a near-term catalyst for risk aversion: President Trump’s recent remarks suggesting intensified strikes against Iran have dampened hopes for a rapid de-escalation, putting pressure on risk assets and causing a pullback in crypto markets.
“Trump’s latest comments on the war with Iran have triggered a sharp sell-off amid no signs of de-escalation,” said Alex Kuptsikevich, chief market analyst at FxPro. said Bloomberg, noting Bitcoin’s consolidation between around $66,000 and $69,000.
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Additionally, CryptoQuant data indicates that large holders – often referred to as whales – have moved from accumulation to net selling over the past year, a trend that traders say helps explain the subdued price action.
“The Onchain data confirms what the price action has telegraphed: there is no conviction,” commented Jasper De Maere, trader at Wintermute.
Institutional flows have also not been favorable. Net inflows to US-listed spot Bitcoin exchange traded funds (ETF) turned negative on Wednesday as investors withdrew approximately $174 million from these vehicles, contributing to the retracement.
Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com
