Aave (AAVE) faced increased selling pressure after the KelpDAO attack. This weakness has also prompted many whales to sell the DeFi token.
Net foreign exchange flows have been positive recently and have equaled the levels of early February. At that time, the crypto market was in the throes of heavy selling. Capital inflows matching these levels could be another sign of weakness in the AAVE market.
The CVD Futures Taker measures the cumulative difference between buying and selling volumes in the market over 3 months. A falling CVD indicates less buying volume in the market.
CVD slowly declined in 2026, implying that sellers had the upper hand. At the time of writing, CVD was not dominated by sellers.
However, a change in this situation, such as in September and October 2025, would cause the altcoin prices to fall.
A downward movement in AAVE prices is brewing
In an article on X, crypto analyst Joao Wedson drew attention to the aggressive positioning of AAAVE whales and major traders. At the same time, retail was betting in the opposite direction.
Smart money and market players may have knowledge that retail doesn’t yet have. “Something big is about to happen,” the analyst warned, although what exactly it is won’t become obvious until after it happens.
Traders and holders should be wary of current market conditions. Despite Bitcoin’s (BTC) rally past $79,000, Aave’s near-term outlook could be relatively bleak.
The 7-day moving average of net foreign exchange flows has seen a sharp rise over the past week. It reached heights not seen in over a year. In April 2025, extremely high exchange inflows marked the Aave market bottom at $125.
However, it is unlikely that the current increase will mark a local trough.
This, due to the long-term price structure of the DeFi token. Additionally, at press time, there appeared to be a notable band of short liquidations ranging from $96 to $102, as well as from $120 to $135.
A rally beyond $125 and $132 is required to change the bearish market structure in a bullish manner. Meanwhile, on-chain metrics showed signs that selling pressure may have the upper hand.
Final summary
- AAVE’s price action and on-chain metrics indicated that sellers were in control of the market.
- The $100 and $125 areas presented a group of near-term selloffs that could serve as near-term price targets.
