In a recent development, Grayscale Research believes that Aave (AAVE) may be undervalued at present. According to Grayscale Research’s conventional discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis, the token is worth its current value.
Grayscale estimates that the protocol will earn around $60 million in 2026, despite recent challenges in the broader cryptocurrency space.
AAVE Grayscale Projects Will Reach $175
The asset manager also estimates that fintech multiples of 20x to 25x would push a current fair value market cap of $1.2 billion to $1.5 billion, or a token price of around $80 to $100 from $75 at press time.
Grayscale added,
In a base case scenario in which regulatory clarity accelerates the adoption of tokenized assets, we believe the fair value of the AAVE token could reach approximately $175 within a year.
Nonetheless, despite its clear tokenism and dominance across multiple crypto cycles, Aave is not impervious to broader ecosystem threats. Although not a direct attack on Aave, the Kelp DAO rsETH exploit in April 2026 caused a downstream market disruption that decreased protocol activity.
Even though the situation was quickly resolved and the funds remained safe, the effects are still being felt. Currently, token buybacks are suspended while the governance review is conducted and the total value locked (TVL) is significantly reduced from $45 billion in 2025 to $13.043 billion at press time.
However, to assess, monitor and manage risks throughout the protocol, Stani Kulechov, the founder of Aave, presented a new risk framework.
Why is Grayscale so optimistic?
For its part, decentralized autonomous organization (DAO) Aave also sets itself apart from its competitors by funding major expansion projects with a large and diverse balance sheet, overseen by token holder governance.
As a result, the DAO’s treasury reached a peak of over $360 million, primarily due to the protocol’s revenue collection and AAVE appreciation. Additionally, users now have over $50 million in active loans on the protocol, with Aave V4 having surpassed $50 million in active loans.
With a 140% increase in the last month, this figure indicates that demand and user activity for the newest version of Aave is growing rapidly.
AAVE Price Predictions and More
At the same time, AAVE decreased by more than 71% compared to the previous year. Although the RSI and MACD have both shown more bullish momentum, concerns remain as the MACD line is below the neutral line.
Additionally, AAVE’s 90-day CVD Spot Taker was flashing green bars in June 2026, suggesting that market buying still exceeded selling.
Nonetheless, the height of the green bars gradually decreased, indicating that although buyers remained in control, their strength was waning and bullish momentum was eroding.
Overall, this suggests that instead of clear bearish pressure, demand is slowing, suggesting that unless new buying activity appears, AAVE may be about to enter a consolidation phase.
Final summary
- Grayscale suggests that Aave should be priced around $80-$100, up from $75 at press time.
- The KelpDAO exploit caused Aave’s TVL to drop from $45 billion in 2025 to $13.043 billion at press time.
