In this article:
- Cardano price could drop 10% if Chang’s next hard fork doesn’t go well.
- Traders placed large short positions between $0.372 and $0.4.
- The network value-to-transactions (NVT) ratio hit a 7-month high, which could mean Cardano is overvalued.
Cardano price is in a tough spot. The upcoming Chang hard fork is creating uncertainty. Some on-chain data suggests investors are bullish, but traders’ behavior seems more cautious and bearish.
Chain measures:
Santiment data shows that the NVT ratio has reached a 7-month high. Typically, when this ratio rises and the price falls, it signals potential overvaluation.
Despite this, IntoTheBlock data shows that large investors, known as “whales,” purchased ADA between August 25 and 28, even as the price dropped. This suggests that large investors still believe in Cardano’s long-term potential.
Whale buying could provide some support to the price. When large investors accumulate assets, it can help stabilize or even push the price higher. This is a positive sign for Cardano in the long term.
Technical analysis:
Despite the whales’ optimism, Cardano price has fallen below the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA). This shows that bearish pressure is strong. The price has found some support around $0.3550, where many whales seem to be strengthening their positions. However, the market is showing indecision, with small price movements both up and down.
Coinglass’ 7-day liquidation chart reveals a solid sell wall between $0.372 and $0.4. This means that it will be difficult for the price to break above this range without significant buying pressure.
On the downside, there is not much buying support between $0.348 and $0.312. If the price breaks below this range, it could drop sharply, perhaps below $0.3.
Look forward to
For Cardano to avoid further declines, it needs to break above $0.4. Positive sentiment from large investors could help, but short-term traders, who are not committed to holding the asset for the long term, could still push the price lower.
The success of Chang’s hard fork will be crucial. If all goes well, the price could increase. But if it goes wrong, a 10% drop is likely.
In summary, Cardano is at a crossroads. The market is uncertain, with both positive and negative factors at play. Investors should keep a close eye on the Chang hard fork to see where the price might head next.
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