Nearly 200 companies now have billions of bitcoins, but a new report warns that only a few can avoid the dangers of a potential death spiral.
The adoption of Bitcoin Company (BTC) is accelerating rapidly, nearly 200 entities now holding more than 3 million BTCs on their balance sheets. But as the new players seem to rush, only those who can skillfully develop their Bitcoin assets by action are more likely to survive the risks to come.
In May 2025, around 199 entities held 3.01 million BTC, or about $ 315 billion at current prices. Among these, 147 companies – private and public – hold around 1.1 million BTCs, worth $ 115 billion. And it’s not static. Since the beginning of 2024, Bitcoin held by such entities has more than doubled.
History here does not only concern accumulation, but on the way in which companies whose main goal is to hold Bitcoin are valued differently, say BREED.VC analysts. Consider them as Bitcoin portfolio companies – the strategy is the child of the poster. A new report underlines that for these companies, survival and success depend on the commander of what is called multiple on the value of net assets, or shortly MNAV. Essentially, it is a payment of premium investors above the value of bitcoin on books.
Wait -and -see
But this premium, explains the report: “depends on confidence and execution by the main team”. It is not only a question of having Bitcoin; Investors want to see these companies execute a game book that increases Bitcoin holdings by action faster than anyone could simply hold Bitcoin by themselves.
The strategy is currently dominating with around 580,000 BTC, more than half of all the Bitcoins held by the company, worth around 60 billion dollars. However, its market capitalization is at $ 104 billion, which gives it a MNAV of about 1.7 times. Historically, the 2x MNAV of Strategy was the gold stallion. The report describes three main levers strategies since 2020:
- Taking convertible debt with low coupons, which only converts into equity if the course of action prohibits substantially, protecting the shareholders of dilution unless the performance justifies it.
- The execution of shares programs at the market, allowing them to sell new shares when the price exceeds MNAV, then the average cost in dollars in addition to bitcoin.
- Reinvest all free cash flows of companies inherited towards the purchase of Bitcoin spot.
Others look and learn. The new entrants adopt and refine this approach, some even allowing Bitcoin holders to exchange parts for actions without triggering capital gains, or acquiring undervalued companies and transforming this value into Bitcoin. Others continue allegations of Bitcoin litigation in difficulty or increase capital via pipe transactions, apparently sailing their regulatory advantage.
The list of Bitcoin Treasury players develops quickly. More than 40 companies have announced that Bitcoin Treasury’s strategies in the first half of only 2025, increasing tens of billions to support these movements. These companies come from everywhere: Japan Metaplanet capitalizes on the low interest rates there, Semler Scientific and Gamestop in the United States have pivoted their treasury bills, and pure game companies like Twenty One Capital – supported by Tether and Cantor – are also in the mixture.
Risk of contagion
However, despite everything optimism, the report warns that “nothing in finance is the test of bullets”, especially in this space. The strategy itself was faced with a brutal stress test during the 2022-2023 bear market. The Bitcoin price fell 80%, the MNAV bonus collapsed and the capital was dried up. Although the company has survived, the threat is clear.
A prolonged bear market combined with imminent debt deadlines could force companies to sell Bitcoin to meet obligations, which has potentially triggered a vicious circle of price and forced sales. This risk would be particularly sharp for new businesses without the scale and the reputation of the strategy. They often increase capital on more difficult terms with a higher lever effect, which, in slowdowns, could accelerate margin calls and distress sale, amplify market pressure.
The report provides that “when failures have inevitably struck, the strongest players are likely to acquire companies in distress and consolidate industry”.
“Fortunately, the risk of contagion is stifled because most of the funding is based on actions;
RACE.VC
For the future, the Bitcoin Treasury Company model seems to start, and not only for Bitcoin. The Playbook is already spreading to other cryptographic active ingredients. For example, Solana has Development Corp, which contains more than 420,000 soil and is estimated at around $ 100 million, and Ethereum in Sharplink Gaming, which raised $ 425 million in a tour led by consensys.
The report expects this trend to increase global, with more companies chasing a higher lever effect to amplify success. However, he also plans that “most will fail”. In this shaken, only a handful will maintain a sustainable MNAV premium thanks to “strong leadership, disciplined execution, wise marketing and distinct strategies”.
In short, the game evolves. Bitcoin Treasury companies are no longer just holders because they become their own breed of companies, entities that must demonstrate skills and discipline to surpass the market in which they invest.
