Two Democrats just introduced a bill that could shake up prediction markets.
Rep. Mike Levin and Sen. Adam Schiff introduced the DEATH BETS Act on March 10. The objective is simple. Make betting on wars, assassinations and deaths illegal.
More than $500 million was bet on the timing of US military strikes against Iran alone. This is the figure cited by Levin. and it’s hard to ignore. Platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket have quietly accumulated hundreds of millions of dollars on this type of contract. DeFi prediction markets are also in the crosshairs.
JUST IN:
US lawmakers introduced the “DEATH BETS Act” to ban prediction markets that allow traders to bet on war, assassinations or the death of people. pic.twitter.com/UPyvHU5HQw
– SwanDesk (@SwanDesk) March 11, 2026
US lawmakers introduced the “DEATH BETS Act” to ban prediction markets that allow traders to bet on war, assassinations or the death of people. This one is worth keeping a close eye on.
DISCOVER: The Next 1000x Crypto Gem Ahead of Its Listing on Binance
What the law actually says about deathmatch betting
This bill does more than just slap a warning label on these markets. This goes directly into the Commodity Exchange Act and prohibits them by law.
Any platform registered with the CFTC would be prohibited from listing contracts related to terrorism, assassination, war or the death of an individual. The latter is new. The CFTC already had some authority over terrorism and assassination contracts. Adding “death of an individual” as a category in its own right is a significant expansion.
Here’s why it’s important. A regulatory rule can be rescinded by the next administration. A law requires Congress to act. This is built to stick.
Democratic lawmakers Adam Schiff and Mike Levin have introduced legislation to ban certain prediction betting in the market.
The bill targets contracts related to war, death and assassinations. Lawmakers… pic.twitter.com/BaDx93UwGg
– BSCN (@BSCNews) March 11, 2026
NEW: US LAWS BAN FORECAST MARKETS RELATED TO DEATHS OR WARSSchiff was blunt about this. Betting on war and death allows insiders to profit from nonpublic information, threatens national security, and encourages violence.
Levin went further. He called such markets immoral and said platforms were renaming bets on assassinations as “regime change” predictions simply to circumvent existing rules.
If this framework holds up in Congress, the door closes quickly.
DISCOVER: Best Meme Coin Presales to Invest in 2026
Why prediction markets are suddenly in the crosshairs
The Iranian contracts were not isolated. Polymarket signed a contract for Khamenei’s dismissal which amounted to $54 million. Contracts on Maduro. On Ukrainian territory. These platforms have become a real market for geopolitical intelligence without any surveillance.
(Source: Polymarché)
This is the bill’s most compelling argument. If an intelligence official knows a strike will happen 48 hours early, he places a bet and cashes out. Nobody catches him. The CFTC has nothing like the SEC’s insider trading infrastructure.
The Polymarket angle makes things more complicated. Trump Jr. joined their advisory board in early 2026. CFTC investigations into the platform reportedly stalled around the same time. Draw your own conclusions.
The bill directly targets registered platforms. DeFi protocols are not explicitly named. Regulators have already heard “but it’s decentralized”. It never lasts forever. Centralized platforms are hit first, then the pressure goes away.
Levin admits the calculations are difficult. Republicans control both chambers, and prediction markets have allies in Trump’s circles. This risks stagnating in committee.
But it is not necessary that this pass to the material. The CFTC is already rewriting the rules, and this bill requires them to act harder and faster. The bill may die, but not the pressure behind it.
DISCOVER: The best Meme Coin ICOs to invest in 2026
Follow 99Bitcoins on X For the latest market updates and subscribe on YouTube for daily market analysis from experts.
The article Democrats Move to Ban Prediction Markets on War and Death: What It Means for DeFi appeared first on 99Bitcoins.
