Veteran analyst Darkfost reports that altcoins remain in a precarious position in the market, especially following recent global financial losses. As a reminder, more than $1 trillion was wiped from US financial markets on Friday due to weak sentiment around AI and semiconductor stocks. The broad-based decline includes losses of 2.6% for the S&P 500, 4.7% for the Nasdaq and 4% for Bitcoin.
Two years later, Altcoins continue to underperform the market
For altcoins, the rust runs deeper, as this set of cryptocurrencies has consistently struggled to appreciate since December 2024, showing little correlation with Bitcoin in the current cycle. According to Darkfost, the recent decline indicates that 83% of these Bitcoin alternatives are trading below their 200-day moving average (200DMA), a key long-term indicator of price growth.
This suggests that investor sentiment towards altcoins is strongly bearish as capital continues to focus on Bitcoin. The analyst further notes that the current figure ranks among the lowest in the current market cycle. Since 2002, the share of altcoins trading below the 200DMA has largely remained in the 60-90% range. This suggests structural weakness in the market, leading to significant underperformance in this market segment.
As a reminder, 200DMA represents the average closing price of an asset over the previous 200 trading days. It functions as a dynamic support or resistance level and is a key measure of overall market health.
Altcoin woes result in $520 billion loss
According to additional data shared by Darkfost, the altcoin’s woes have also led to a significant loss in market value. The analyst notes that Tradingview’s TOTAL3 chart, which tracks the combined market capitalization of altcoins excluding Ethereum, has lost nearly $520 billion from its October 2025 peak, falling to around $670 billion.
The decline effectively erased months of gains in the broader altcoin market, with TOTAL3 returning to valuation levels last seen in November 2024. The sharp contraction underscores the extent of capital flight from alternative cryptocurrencies as investors increasingly favor Bitcoin amid continued market uncertainty.
However, Darkfost says periods of extreme pessimism have historically offered some of the most attractive opportunities for long-term investors. In contrast, periods when nearly 90% of altcoins were trading above their 200-day moving average, such as in March and December 2024, often coincided with increased optimism and reduced upside potential.
The analyst also highlighted that the expansion recorded during these periods was the strongest since 2017, reflecting unusually broad participation in the altcoin market.
Featured image of Pi42, chart from Tradingview
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