Analyst predicts 2-3 years of crypto gains as risk environment emerges

Bitcoin dominance signals are among the indicators that analysts say indicate a changing market cycle.

Crypto analyst Matthew Hyland says the macroeconomic backdrop that has penalized digital currencies for four straight years is finally changing, pointing to patterns that preceded crypto’s two biggest bull runs.

In two articles on

A repeating model over four years

Hyland’s case relies on comparing three periods he characterizes as macro-risk bear markets: 2014 to 2016, 2018 to 2020, and 2022 to 2026. In each, he says, crypto performed poorly while the broader risk environment remained hostile, only for conditions to reverse and trigger the sector’s strongest runs. He is now betting that the current cycle follows the same scenario.

“Macro-Risk is now exiting the bear market for the first time since mid-2016 and mid-2020,” he wrote, adding that this type of setup produced “maximum long-term opportunity” the previous two times.

He also highlighted two chart signals that he sees as confirmation. Bitcoin dominance just posted a death cross for the first time since 2016 and 2020, which it sees as an early marker of change. He also expects altcoin dominance to follow with a golden cross this fall, which he believes would repeat what happened in previous cycles.

According to the market watcher, his own macro risk ratios moved at the same points in 2016 and 2020, and are turning again now, which is why he calls the next two to three years the “most optimal period” for crypto. However, his predictions should be taken as a market thesis and not a certainty, especially since crypto cycles have also historically been influenced by liquidity, investor sentiment, and broader economic conditions.

Broader markets still send mixed signals

Hyland’s call landed with Bitcoin (BTC) trading near $63,000 after hitting a two-week high above $64,000, even after Strategy sold 3,588 BTC on Monday to fund dividends.

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Analytics firm Swissblock described the price action as showing “signs of stabilization”, while warning that a real recovery still requires buyers to continue to come forward.

Elsewhere, analyst Credible Crypto argued that altcoins trading 80-90% below their highs could outperform BTC if sentiment changes, pointing out that long-term holders now control nearly 80% of the flagship cryptocurrency’s supply. On Ethereum, trader Michaël van de Poppe declared this weekend that “the worst period for ETH is over” and spoke of a possible higher low against Bitcoin after three consecutive quarterly losses of more than 20% each.

Another market observer, Merlijn The Trader, separately reported a decline in ETH to 0.026 against BTC, a level that foreshadowed a 230% rise against Bitcoin when it last appeared. While none of these calls are directly related to Hyland’s thesis, the timing is hard to ignore, with all landing within the same week.