Aptos (APT) has been under sustained selling pressure for some time now, with the price consistently falling on the chart.
In the last 30 days alone, APT is down 39%. Over a longer time frame, losses amounted to 67% from November’s high of $3.37 – a sign of its persistent bearish structure.
With a new supply entering circulation, questions have emerged regarding the near-term direction of APT and whether pressure from inflation could outweigh improving on-chain signals.
Inflation risk becomes a priority
Aptos is expected to be unlocked on February 10, putting approximately $12.73 million worth of APT into circulation at press time, according to DeFiLlama.
Here, token inflation refers to an increase in circulating supply due to the issuance of new tokens. It is typically used to reward network participants, support development, and encourage ecosystem growth.
Source: DeFiLlama
The upcoming release represents 1.13% of Aptos’ total supply and 1.48% of its circulating supply, highlighting its potential impact on the market. The distribution will be split between major contributors, the community and investors.
Historically, token unlocking has often triggered short-term selling pressure as recipients liquidate newly issued tokens. Given that community members and investors account for more than 50% of the unlocked supply, or approximately $6.58 million, the downside risk could be high.
In an already weak altcoin environment, reflected by a market index of 24, additional selling pressure could accelerate the price decline.
APT tests critical support as exhaustion hits
On the Binance weekly chart, APT was trading at a crucial technical level. The price has fallen below the upper demand zone, previously highlighted as a key support zone. At press time, it appeared to be hovering near the $1.00 level.
Failure to hold this support could result in a new all-time low, placing APT among a small group of assets to reach this threshold since the start of the bear market.
Although there is still downside risk, technical indicators suggest that a rebound is still possible. Despite no confirmation or clear timing on this.
Source: TradingView
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has entered a zone commonly associated with accumulation, where the likelihood of a price reversal is also increasing. It has entered oversold territory, a condition often linked to seller burnout and growing buyer interest at discounted levels.
However, this does not guarantee an immediate rebound. And other disadvantages remain possible. However, historically, such conditions increase the likelihood of a corrective rebound.
Finally, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) also hinted at improving momentum.
Liquidity and capital flows remain favorable
Despite the low prices, liquidity conditions nevertheless showed some resilience. In fact, on-chain data indicates that total value locked (TVL), a measure of capital committed to the Aptos ecosystem, has continued to increase.
DeFiLlama data also revealed that since February 6, TVL has increased by $14.04 million. This implied that investors could lock in assets within the ecosystem, typically based on a long-term view rather than short-term speculation.
Source: CoinGlass
Finally, on the spot market, net foreign exchange flows suggest regular accumulation. Weekly data revealed steady outflows from exchanges starting in early January, with $2.03 million in APT withdrawn this week alone.
However, short-term pressure persists. Daily net flow data revealed approximately $536,000 in net inflows to exchanges – illustrating ongoing selling activity.
Final Thoughts
- A token unlock of $12.73 million is expected to increase the circulating supply, increasing downside risk.
- On-chain indicators and capital flows suggest there may be early signs of selective accumulation by buyers.
