Arbitrage-linked wallets transferred 22 million ARB worth approximately $2.3 million to Coinbase in the last 24 hours, drawing attention to the potential supply entering the market.
The data showed this wallet still held 55.89 million ARBs worth $5.87 million, while Arbitrum:Gnosis held 85.22 million ARBs worth $8.94 million. However, the broader trading picture points in a different direction.
Over the past seven days, nearly $11 million worth of ARB has left centralized exchanges, indicating that investors continued to move tokens into their own custody. This contrast highlighted a growing tug of war between possible distribution from team-linked wallets and constant accumulation from market participants.
Can the ARB defend its final support?
The price development weakened considerably after ARA fell below its ascending channel, which had guided the rally from March to early May.
After the outage, sellers pushed the token towards the critical support level of $0.1006, where ARB was trading near $0.1028 at press time. The decline also placed the market well below the $0.1164 resistance zone and significantly below the $0.1447 main barrier.
The MACD line remained below the signal line, while the histogram remained negative despite reduced downward pressure compared to previous readings.
Although sales activity has slowed slightly, buyers have not yet returned to key levels. Therefore, ARB remains vulnerable unless demand returns to around current support levels.
ARB Funding Changes Reveal Defensive Positioning
At the time of writing, derivatives traders took a more cautious stance as the IO-weighted funding rate fell to -0.0051%. This negative reading indicates that short sellers paid out long positions, reflecting growing bearish conviction in the perpetual futures markets.
Such conditions often arise when traders anticipate further declines or attempt to protect against market uncertainty.
In this case, the funding structure aligned with the recent breakout of the ascending channel and the ARB’s inability to reclaim overhead resistance levels. Nonetheless, consistently negative funding rates sometimes create opportunities for sharp reversals when bearish positioning becomes overcrowded.
If support continues to hold near $0.1006, excessive short exposure could increase the likelihood of a relief rally as traders unwind their defensive positions.
Traders wait as liquidations remain limited
Liquidation activity remained relatively subdued despite the recent decline, suggesting that traders have largely avoided aggressive leverage.
The latest data showed total long liquidations of around $40.66k, compared to just $26.71k in short liquidations. This imbalance reflects the pressure buyers faced during the ARB’s slide toward support. However, the figures remain modest compared to previous liquidation peaks seen earlier this year.
Such quiet activity is often a sign of hesitation rather than strong directional conviction. Since neither bulls nor bears faced significant forced closes, the market did not have a catalyst for high volatility.
A decisive move below $0.1006 would likely increase liquidation pressure, while a recovery above $0.1164 could force exit from defensive short positions.
In conclusion, Arbitrum faced mixed signals as team-linked wallets moved 22 million ARB to Coinbase while broader exchange balances continued to decline. The price structure weakened after the channel breakout, and negative funding rates reflected a cautious sentiment.
However, currency outflows suggest that accumulation demand remained active. If buyers successfully defend the $0.1006 support zone, ARB could stabilize and challenge higher resistance levels.
Otherwise, continued weakness would increase near-term downside risks.
Final summary
- Team-related ARB filings have increased supply concerns despite continued currency outflows.
- ARB traded near major support as bearish positioning strengthened.
