Key points to remember:
- Polymarket traders have invested $115 million for US forces to enter Iran by December 31, giving a 90% probability.
- KalshiStrait of Hormuz closure market holds $7.3 million in volumereflecting deep concern over a 7-day blockade.
- Mojtaba Khamenei has a 64% chance of leading Iran by the end of 2026, as successor markets follow the death of the supreme leader.
Betting on conflict outcomes in 2026
The war, known as Operation Epic Fury by the United States and Roaring Lion by Israel, began on February 28, 2026, following the failure of nuclear negotiations in Rome. US and Israeli forces have launched coordinated airstrikes across Iran. Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was among those killed.
Polymarket’s most active Iranian markets now span five categories: military calendars, leadership succession, regional strikes, Strait of Hormuz and diplomacy. Together, they reflect a conflict that traders say is far from over and unlikely to be resolved on favorable terms.
On the military side, there is an 82% chance that the Iran-Israel-US conflict will end by December 31. A ceasefire between the United States and Iran is at 70% with $87 million in dollars. volume. Traders estimate a 69% chance that President Donald Trump will announce an end to military operations against Iran by June 30. A full US invasion before 2027 has a 52% chance, backed by $3 million in volume.
Leading markets are evolving rapidly. With Khamenei dead and his son Mojtaba designated as successor, Polymarket gives Mojtaba Khamenei a 64% chance of remaining in power until the end of 2026, backed by $6 million in volume. A general change of direction before the end of the year amounts to 36%. Reza Pahlavi enters Iran by June 30 with a probability of only 18%, although $13 million is needed. volume suggests that traders pay close attention to this.
The Strait of Hormuz is where some of the most concentrated bets live. KalshiThe market tracking whether Iran will effectively close the strait for seven days or more brings in $7.3 million. volume in three submarkets. On Polymarket, Kharg Island, the main Iranian oil export terminal, has a 31% chance of no longer being under Iranian control by June 30, with $12 million to support this outcome. An oil terminal strike by April 30 also stands at 31%.
Markets linked to shipping disruptions reflect a bleak near-term outlook. Polymarket estimates that the probability that traffic in the Strait of Hormuz will return to normal by April 30 is only 11%, rising to 33% by May 31. Average daily vessel transits for April 3 are rated at 100% for the range 0-10. A 51% chance that daily transit prices will exceed 20 ships by the end of April.
In Kalshi, the nuclear deal issue attracts the most money volume. Across four markets, traders invested $3.16 million in the outcome of the US-Iran nuclear deal. A deal before 2027 carries odds of 35% at 2.73x. A trade before August drops 19% to 4.98x. Polymarket estimates a nuclear deal by April 30 at just 3%.
Iran acquiring a nuclear weapon before 2027 sits at 9% on Polymarket with volume of $474,000. A formal US declaration of war on Iran on December 31 has a probability of 8%, with $5 million behind it.
Diplomatic activity is assessed with skepticism on both platforms. A US-Iran diplomatic meeting on June 30 shows a 56% probability with $1 million volume on Polymarket. JD Vance speaking to Iranian negotiators on April 30 stands at 21%. Kalshi shows that there is a 17% chance that the United States will reopen its embassy in Iran.
Trump visiting Iran before 2027 has an 11% probability over Kalshi. Before June 2026, this figure drops to 2%.
On April 4, Iran claimed responsibility for two US planes shot down near the Strait of Hormuz. The White House has issued an ultimatum: reopen the strait by April 6 or face strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure. The traders watched. The money was transferred before the deadline.
