Current fair value sits near $99,000, framing a potential recovery target in the $96,000 to $99,000 area if sentiment and liquidity improve.
Bitcoin (BTC) is trading around $87,000 on November 25, with on-chain indexes and derivatives hinting that the month-long bear phase may be near a key inflection point.
Analysts now anticipate a potential recovery window between $96,000 and $99,000, with weak investors exiting the market and liquidity, rather than narratives, beginning to drive the next big move.
Indices indicate bear fatigue as prices lag behind fair value
On-chain researcher Axel Adler Jr. reported on Tuesday that the Bitcoin Bull-Bear Structure Index has been in negative territory since November 11, indicating sustained selling pressure.
However, a short-term reversal is now underway, with the indicator improving from a deeply negative -43% to around -20%. According to the analyst, this indicates a clear reduction in bearish momentum.
Meanwhile, the Bitcoin Futures Flow Index is still stuck in a bearish zone near 41, which is still below the 45-55 band that Adler associates with a more neutral or bullish backdrop. According to him, until this level has been reached, “an upward dynamic is unlikely”.
Furthermore, the current fair value sits near $99,000 and leaves a visible gap of $11,000 to spot, framing a recovery target between $96,000 and $99,000 if sentiment improves.
Market watcher Daan Crypto Trades also provided evidence that pressure may indeed be easing, pointing out that Coinbase’s premium, which had been deeply negative for weeks, moved back towards neutrality over the weekend after heavy selling hit a local low last Friday.
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Nonetheless, the short-term structure remains fragile, with Titan of Crypto identifying $88,700 as top-tier bulls need to recover. Meanwhile, analyst Ed_NL pointed to a “red box” resistance area near $93,500 that could either limit a three-stage rebound before new lows or form the basis of a fifth wave higher if buyers regain control.
Recent price movement
Looking at the market, Bitcoin was up slightly at the time of writing, gaining a modest 1% over the past 24 hours. However, it remains in the red in all other periods, down almost 5% over seven days and 18% over two weeks.
Additionally, it lost 23% of its value last month and is currently about 30% below its all-time high of over $126,000, reached in October.
The recent downturn has been characterized by a distinct “institutional redistribution,” in which the largest cohorts of whales, particularly those holding between 1,000 and 10,000+ BTC, have been consistent net sellers, taking profits and creating a persistent headwind to any significant rally.
At the same time, Santiment data shows that the number of wallets containing 100 BTC or more has increased by 0.47% since November 11, adding 91 new wallets at this level. This shows that accumulation is occurring, but primarily in the mid-sized whale category, consisting of 10-1,000 BTC holders, rather than the larger category.
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