Bitcoin is entering a macro -lurde week with the political meeting of the federal reserve in September, the updated economic projections and a press conference of Powell all landing on Wednesday September 17 – events that historically set the tone for risk assets in the end quarter. Since early Monday in Europe, Bitcoin has been negotiated nearly $ 116,500 while Ether changed hands approximately $ 4,660, with moderate positioning before the Fed.
Bitcoin and Crypto hugs for the drop in the rate of the Fed
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will meet from September 16 to 17, with the policy declaration due at 2:00 p.m. HE (8:00 p.m. CEST) Wednesday, followed by President Jerome Powell’s press conference at 2:30 p.m. (8:30 p.m. CEST). Reunion includes a new summary of economic projections (MS) and the “point plot” of the rate paths of political decision -makers – the quarterly materials that market the line by line for indices on the pace and extent of the relaxation until 2025-2026.
Expectations are unilateral: term markets imply that a drop in rate of 25 points is the basic case. In recent days, sales overviews and market prices have converged this result, with only a small risk of a tail awarded to a larger decision. The more important debate is what follows: that Powell looks in a sequence of stable garnishes until the end of the year or emphasizes a slower and dependent path if inflation proves to be stuck.
The plot of points is the point of support for bitcoin, crypto and wider risk. In June, the projections of managers established the previous reference base; Wednesday’s update will show how many 2025 cuts the median participant now “pencils”, the distribution (how the committee is in cluster or the long -term neutral rhythm (R *).
Traces of median and softer and more soft inflation of 2025 would report easier financial conditions in 2026; A less deep path or a superior R * would do the opposite. The press conference then becomes a second -rate catalyst: if Powell emphasizes the cooling of the labor market and policy delays, it could validate the market for market flexibility; If it highlights the risks of inflation upwards or considerations of financial stability, it could cap the rally in duration and risk.
Balance sheet policy is also important for cryptographic liquidity. After the quantitative tightening of the reduction until 2024, the Fed still slowed down the runoff this spring. As the Fed declared, “from April 1, 2025, the Committee reduced the monthly buyout ceiling on cash titles from 25 billion to $ 5 billion”, a mechanical relaxation of QT trail which has gradually supported the liquidity conditions in dollars. This backdrop helps explain why the combination of slower rate drops is read as net support for high beta assets – the points do not underline the path.
Boe and Boj decisions follow
It’s not just the Fed on the bridge. The Bank of England announces on Thursday September 18 (12:00 p.m. BST; 1:00 p.m. CEST), recent reports not suggesting an immediate rate movement, but an increased accent on the reduction of the rhythm of quantitative tightening in the middle of sensitivity to the golden market. Any change in the speed or composition of QT – or surprises in advice – transforms directly into world rates and the dollar, two variables closely correlated with the short -term sompto swings.
The Bank of Japan follows Thursday to Friday (from September 18 to 19, Tokyo), still a potential volatility injector for FX. Although the political path to Tokyo is its own story, the purchase adjustments or the orientation of the obligations can collapse in American yields and the Dxy via the movements of the yen, indirectly affecting the appetite for cryptographic risk. The BOJ meeting dates and the publication calendar highlight the overlap of the timing with the Fed and the BOE.
For the crypto, the transmission channel is simple: lower policy rates and a softer point path tend to alleviate financial conditions, the pressure of real yields and the dollar, and widen the appetite for duration and high beta exhibitions, including bitcoin and high capitalization altcoins.
Conversely, a bellicist surprise – cuts of people affected reported for 2025, a higher long -term rate, or an emphasis on the press conference on the risk of inflation – would probably make the dollar firm and cap the rebound at risk, leaving the crypto vulnerable to a post -event fondu. In a week when the decisions of the Fed, Boe and Boj compress in 48 hours, the macro impetus will dominate the micro-recit.
At the time of the press, Bitcoin exchanged $ 115,733.
Star image created with dall.e, tradingView.com graphic
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