Key notes
- Analysts say Bitcoin’s decline is a normal cooling after its +122% rise last year.
- US-led selling pushed Coinbase Premium lower before quickly turning positive again.
- The drop in price, coupled with the drop in open interest, shows a futures run-out rather than a true spot sale.
Bitcoin (BTC) is holding prices near $89,000 as analysts say the current pullback remains within the bounds of a healthy cycle correction rather than a full-blown crypto winter.
Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas said in an article on X that Bitcoin only gave up the surplus created last year after a +122% rally. He added that even if 2025 closes flat or slightly lower, the asset will still maintain its 50% average annual gain.
“Assets can get cold from time to time, even stocks. People overanalyze them, IMO,” Balchunas said.
Balchunas also rejected claims that Bitcoin resembles the tulip bubble. He said tulips collapsed after three years of madness, while Bitcoin survived six major crashes, regulatory pressures, exchange failures, halvings and global shocks over 17 years.
He added that endurance alone sets Bitcoin apart, while asserting that many non-productive assets retain value, from gold to rare works of art, and that Bitcoin falls into this category without relying solely on euphoria.
Yes, both bitcoin and tulips are non-earning assets. But gold too, a painting by Picasso too, rare stamps – would you compare them to tulips? Not all assets need to be “productive” to have value. But even beyond that, the tulips were marked by euphoria and crash. And that’s it.…
– Eric Balchunas (@EricBalchunas) December 6, 2025
US activity puts pressure on Bitcoin in December
CryptoQuant’s Coinbase Premium Index shows that the recent drop in Bitcoin prices was mainly due to sales in the United States at the start of December. The premium fell into negative territory in late November and early December, a historic period of portfolio rebalancing and tax losses by U.S. institutions.
This trend corresponds to previous cycles, during which low premiums in December either interrupted recoveries or exposed phases of stress. The difference this year is due to a rapid rebound, that is, the premium returned to positive territory within a few days.
Coinbase Premium Index for Bitcoin | Source: CryptoQuant
CryptoQuant said this transition often means selling pressure has run its course, allowing US demand to re-emerge. The stabilization or fall of Bitcoin now depends mainly on US liquidity, the behavior of derivatives and inflows.
Futures Reset Signals Derivative Cooling
Another CryptoQuant analyst, Carmelo Alemán, highlighted the decline in open interest (OI) across all exchanges. He said the price and OI fell simultaneously. This is not a sign of spot selling, but of futures closing, Alemán said.
Lower OI eliminates excess debt from the system and reduces the false momentum created by short-term derivatives. He argued that this phase reflects a reset and not the start of a bear market, as Balchunas had claimed earlier in the day.
Bitcoin OI Chart | Source: CryptoQuant
Alemán also added that price increases associated with a rise in OI generally represent fragile, leverage-driven rallies lacking real demand.
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Disclaimer: Coinspeaker is committed to providing unbiased and transparent reporting. This article is intended to provide accurate and current information, but should not be considered financial or investment advice. Because market conditions can change quickly, we encourage you to verify the information for yourself and consult a professional before making any decisions based on this content.
A crypto journalist with over 5 years of industry experience, Parth has worked with leading media outlets in the crypto and finance world, gaining experience and expertise in the field after surviving both bear and bull markets over the years. Parth is also the author of 4 self-published books.
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