Bitcoin could approach a larger bullish move if current technical and on-chain trends continue, according to Capriole founder Charles Edwards, who argued in a new market note that a group of macro, sentiment and blockchain indicators have moved in a more constructive direction despite a volatile geopolitical backdrop.
Edwards described the current environment as unusually difficult to navigate, with markets oscillating between war fears, peak oil and a rapidly evolving AI threat landscape. Still, he said the underlying signal from Bitcoin and broader macroeconomic data is increasingly difficult to ignore, particularly if BTC can maintain a monthly and weekly close above $71,500, a level he described as a critical threshold.
Bitcoin Technicals and On-Chain Turn Bullish
Regarding price structure alone, Edwards said a close above $71,500 would mark Bitcoin’s best technical monthly close in a year. On the daily chart, he described the recent development as even more encouraging, citing considerable progress and notable relative strength compared to other markets since the start of the Iran war.
This relative performance is important in its context because Bitcoin has largely traded as a risk asset over the previous nine months.
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He associated this chart view with a series of on-chain signals that he believes resemble previous accumulation zones. Normalized dormancy is low, which he says suggests long-term holders are not distributing into weakness. He also highlighted further “restacking” by long-time holders, including a recent shift in the 2+ year cohort, and deeply depressed SOPR readings, which historically have often coincided with stronger Bitcoin futures opportunities.
Miners send a similar message, he argued. Edwards said the market remained in a phase of deep miner capitulation, referring to Hash Ribbons, while miner selling pressure was also unusually subdued. He added that one of the most important charts in his stack now shows institutions are net buyers again, a backdrop he says has accompanied every major phase of Bitcoin appreciation over the past five years, when demand outpaced newly mined supply.
Overall, the message was simple: “Among this data set (and more), it’s hard not to be bullish on Bitcoin above $71.5K.” »
Macroeconomic fear is fading, but it is not gone
Edwards also linked Bitcoin’s improving backdrop to traditional market indicators. He pointed to a recent macro buy signal from the VIX after volatility fell from over 30 towards the 20 zone, a CNN Fear & Greed reading in buy territory and what he called the largest weekly rise in US liquidity since May 2025. He said these changes suggest that markets are starting to move past the most acute phase of geopolitical panic.
This is important because, he says, markets are increasingly treating the Iranian conflict as a contained risk rather than a lasting macroeconomic shock. Oil is back below $100, the U.S.-Iran ceasefire is in place, and Bitcoin has outperformed stocks by 11% since the war began, according to Edwards. For an asset that has spent months in a broad downtrend, he considers this a significant change in character.
He went further, saying markets may now be entering what he called “volatility fatigue,” a phase in which investors begin to anticipate daily trend reversals and instead return to assessing liquidity, growth and fundamentals.
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Yet the note wasn’t simply a bullish call to the market. Edwards has spent a lot of time addressing what he sees as a growing AI-driven security threat to crypto infrastructure, particularly DeFi and complex smart contract systems. He argued that increasingly capable models would reduce the time it takes to discover and exploit vulnerabilities from months to minutes.
His advice was blunt: “If you don’t have a really good reason to use complex DeFi protocols and smart contracts, you probably shouldn’t be doing it as we move into this new realm of AI. Think about it. Is it really worth leveraging those few extra basis points to lend/borrow/bridge/stake/restake?”
This caution is part of the bullish arguments rather than against them. Edwards’ broader argument is that the market is starting to reward opportunity over fear, but only for investors who remain disciplined about risk.
“Let us not exaggerate the problems in our heads, but prepare accordingly,” he wrote. “Long-term performance has historically rewarded those who position themselves for an optimistic outcome, while simultaneously managing risk, diligently monitoring data, and acting with strong conviction. In short, if the current move fails next week and risk metrics start to flicker, our systematic portfolio will pivot accordingly. Until then, things are looking good for Bitcoin and stocks today.”
At press time, BTC was trading at $74,117.
Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
