Brief
- ARK Invest predicts that Bitcoin could account for around 70% of a projected $28 trillion digital asset market by 2030, driven by the adoption of ETFs and corporate treasuries.
- DeFi value is moving from networks to applications, as fee-generating protocols evolve faster and begin to compete with fintech platforms in terms of revenue efficiency and assets under management.
- Tokenized markets are going mainstream, with ARK predicting up to $11 trillion in real-world tokenized assets by 2030.
Bitcoin, decentralized finance applications and real-world token assets are poised to dominate crypto development in 2026, with experts saying regulatory clarity will determine whether the innovation translates into widespread adoption.
The latest research report from ARK Invest, titled “Big Ideas 2026“, predicts that the digital asset market could reach $28 trillion by 2030, with Bitcoin accounting for 70% of this market, or approximately $16 trillion.
The projections from Cathie Wood’s investment management firm are “reasonable,” said Joni Pirovich, founder and CEO of Crystal aOS. Decrypt.
“Crypto-native financial platforms are evolving, but they are not seeking to become global centralized institutions: they are seeking global acceptance and adapting to fragmented compliance requirements,” she said.
The report highlights the maturation of Bitcoin as an institutional asset class, with ETFs and US public companies now holding 12% of the total supply, up from 8.7% at the start of 2025.
The projections show how Bitcoin, DeFi and tokenized assets are increasingly treated as functional components of global capital markets.
Sudhakar Lakshmanaraja, founder of blockchain education platform Digital South Trust, said Decrypt that “the future of cryptocurrency in 2026 will be decided more by regulation than innovation.”
“Bitcoin can dominate as an asset, but DeFi and tokenized markets cannot scale until governments sort out custody, compliance and investor protection rules,” he added.
Tokenized assets tripled to $19 billion in 2025 and could reach $11 trillion by 2030 (around 1.38% of global financial assets), backed by BlackRock’s $1.7 billion BUIDL fund (20% of tokenized Treasuries) and tokenized gold from Tether and Paxos, according to the report.
Decentralized finance applicationsmeanwhile, generated a record $3.8 billion in revenue in 2025, with January alone accounting for a fifth of the total, while ultra-lean platforms like Hyperliquid have surpassed $800 million in annual revenue with fewer than 15 employees, and 70 protocols now exceed $1 million in monthly recurring revenue, according to the report.
“By 2026, the convergence of mature regulatory frameworks and interoperable institutional networks will enable digital sovereign securities to redefine global capital formation,” said Wook Lee, founder and CEO of EDENA Capital Partners. Decrypthighlighting the transformation underway.
Tokenized markets will be the “primary driver of real economic activity in the digital asset ecosystem,” Lee added.
The report also noted Bitcoin’s declining volatility, with average declines from all-time highs hitting their lowest levels across all measured time horizons in 2025, and Bitcoin’s risk-adjusted returns outperforming. Ethereum And Solana during most of the year.
The world’s largest cryptocurrency is trading just below $90,000, up 0.5% over the past 24 hours but down more than 6% for the week, according to CoinGecko. data.
The crypto rebounded above the $90,000 level on Wednesday after President Donald Trump said he would not impose tariffs on European countries following a meeting with NATO’s secretary general over the fate of Greenland, although prices have since retreated amid continued geopolitical uncertainty.
ARK’s report also looked at AI infrastructure, autonomous vehicles, robotics and distributed energy alongside its crypto analysis.
On the Myriad prediction market, users are currently turn to cryptoand not AI, as the bubble is most likely to burst first, with traders assigning a chance of almost 55%.
(Disclaimer: Myriad is owned by Decrypt’s parent company, Dastan)
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