Some analysts expect an initial drop in the BTC price, even if a peace deal is confirmed before a broader rally resumes.
Bitcoin (BTC) rallied to $78,000 on Monday after analysts linked the latest rebound to easing tensions between the United States and Iran and the prospect of a broader rally in risk assets.
Traders who have spent much of the past two weeks bracing for another decline are now wondering if the flagship cryptocurrency can reclaim the low $80,000 range and drag altcoins higher with it.
The peace deal is the macro catalyst crypto has been waiting for
In an article on X earlier today, analyst Michaël van de Poppe laid out the chain of events he believes would follow a Middle East peace deal:
“Oil is falling. Yields are falling. Risk assets will do well. Bitcoin is above $80,000 again. Altcoins will have their day throughout the summer.”
The concern, he said, was whether BTC could reclaim a key resistance zone, which now appears to be the case.
“From this point on, many charts look like they’re going to go higher, which would put crypto back on the map,” he wrote.
The timing of the release is significant, given that Bitcoin fell to just over $74,000 on Saturday morning, its lowest point in May, after a new round of threats from President Trump directed at Iran.
The reversal happened quickly once Trump himself announced that the two sides had made real progress toward a permanent peace deal, with BTC rallying to around $77,200 before running into resistance.
At the time of writing, the OG crypto was trading near $77,500, which is still far from its 7-day high of around $78,000 and down around 38% from its all-time high above $126,000 set in October 2025.
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Meanwhile, over the past year, Bitcoin has lost around 28% of its value.
Trader Sykodelic, publishing around the same time as van de Poppe, was cautiously optimistic, but warned that an announcement of a peace deal this week could actually produce an initial decline before any sustained rise.
“Take out the weekend lows, try that $74,000 level again, tempt the bears one more time…then we move back up to June,” he wrote.
He also noted that Bitcoin closed the week above its 50 and 100 simple moving averages and what traders call the bull market support band, which it had been tracking for about three months.
Not everyone rushes to call the bottom
Elsewhere, on-chain analyst Axel Adler Jr. pointed out a less-than-ideal data point from last week: around 18,000 BTC flooded into exchanges, while US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw outflows of around 16,000 BTC.
“The demand for ETFs did not absorb the inflow of currencies. It added to the pressure,” he noted.
Another market observer, Merlijn The Trader, set a short-term target between $82,000 and $82,000, describing it as a “liquidity cluster” where trapped sellers will face pressure.
But he made it clear that this is where he expects to establish a short position, with a long-term target below $67,000.
Meanwhile, analyst Dean Crypto Trades previously argued that BTC needs to reclaim the $80,000 low zone, where the 200-day moving average sits, and turn it into a higher low.
Without it, he warned, the recent recovery would just be a new low in a downward trend in effect since the October 2025 peak.
