Bitcoin’s largest options expiry of the year is colliding with geopolitical volatility that shows no sign of letting up with make or break peace talks uncertain.
Roughly $14 billion of Bitcoin options are set to expire Friday, as measured by the number for outstanding contracts, known as open interest. The quarterly rollover—which wipes out close to 40% of open positions on the dominant Deribit exchange—comes amid conflicting signals on the prospect of a halt to the nearly month-long war in the Middle East.
The overlap is sharpening a key question for traders: whether the expiry has been artificially muting Bitcoin’s price swings and if its removal will expose the token to a sharper move driven by geopolitics.
Bitcoin has been stuck between roughly $60,000 and $75,000 in recent weeks, drifting well below its October 2025 peak of around $126,000 after a market-wide crash on Oct. 10. The lack of direction has persisted despite geopolitical tensions and intermittent inflows into U.S. exchange-traded funds. Bitcoin fell as much as 4% to $68,122 on Thursday.
