The most convinced Bitcoin holders realized approximately $2.4 billion in aggregate losses over a 48-hour window ending June 5, 2026, as the spot price surpassed the Short-Term Holder Realized Price (STH-RP), a level that in on-chain analysis serves as final structural support in an intact bull market.
This breakout coincides with a broader reassessment of risk aversion in global stocks, more than $2 billion in total liquidations of long positions in derivatives markets and a Fear and Greed Index of 12/100, putting market sentiment in territory last seen during the COVID-19 crash and FTX collapse in November 2022.
The analytical question is no longer whether this constitutes a significant Bitcoin price decline event; it’s a question of whether the current long-term holder (LTH) distribution pattern reflects a late-cycle deterioration in conviction or the kind of painful but limited surge that has historically preceded rallies by months.
Bitcoin price has fallen from recent highs near $69,000 to $62,000, while the Short-Term Holder Realized Price (STH-SOR) indicator shows short-term holders capitulating and selling at a loss. This on-chain metric suggests that weak hands are coming out, which may historically precede… pic.twitter.com/WApSrH6o4N
— Onchain Insights (@OnchainIns5699) June 5, 2026
LTH-SOPR and STH realized a price violation: what on-chain data really shows
The crypto market is experiencing a fire sale, indicated by the Long-Term Holder Spent Profit Ratio (LTH-SOPR) falling below 1.0. This suggests that coins held for more than 155 days are being sold at a loss.
This is a rare occurrence in bull markets that typically report major lows, such as in January 2015, December 2018, and November 2022. Data shows that approximately 26% of Bitcoin sold recently came from holders who purchased more than $90,000, highlighting the shift from accumulation to significant distribution among long-term holders.
CryptoQuant describes this phase as an on-chain capitulation event, with short-term holder price (STH-RP) measurements indicating that Bitcoin is in a “deep fire sale zone,” where coins are trading at substantial discounts. While this environment may attract value hunters, past cycles indicate that such conditions can last for weeks or even months without prices reaching a definitive bottom.
Currently, the market has seen a 30-35% decline from peak levels, a range that has historically rattled late entrants without ending the overall uptrend, although it is still unclear whether this phase represents a deep correction or a top.
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Lossy bid, MVRV Z-score and broader composite signal
When long-term holders send $BTC to exchanges
Check out the chart of the week below👇 pic.twitter.com/3uV9H2jU5C
— glassnode (@glassnode) June 4, 2026
Beyond LTH-SOPR, on-chain secondary metrics indicate capitulation without confirming a market bottom. Data from Glassnode shows the MVRV Z-Score at around -1.5 standard deviations, close to the $62,000-$65,000 support zone, which has already marked accumulation zones in previous cycles.
Currently, a significant percentage of the bitcoin supply is held at a loss, similar to the conditions seen during the late 2022 capitulation, but these measurements do not confirm the exhaustion of sales.
Additionally, the completed Cap HODL wave indicates turnover in the 1-3 month cohort, while longer-term holders remain focused, distinguishing this phase from earlier bear market depths.
Confirmation of a sustainable floor would require a decrease in net LTH outflows, a sustainable close above the STH-RP, and a stabilization of the losing supply percentage, none of which have yet been established.
Three Scenarios: What Happens Next at Bitcoin’s Realized Price Threshold
$BTC Remove most of the liquidity below during this drop.
Slow rise in April to become a big hunt now.
The largest liquidity cluster in this area sits at around $83,000, just above local highs.
Below, obviously, the $60,000 area, which is the local low, would still have a good… pic.twitter.com/VwVcE3WQ0l
– Daan Crypto Trades (@DaanCrypto) June 5, 2026
Case of the bull: STH-RP recovers on a daily close over the next 5-10 sessions, driven by positive ETF flows and slowing LTH spending, similar to the March 2020 and late 2022 recoveries. The $62,000-$65,000 range holds, indicating market absorption rather than weakness. Price targets could reach $85,000-$92,000 in 60-90 days with macroeconomic stability.
Base case: Bitcoin consolidates between $60,000 and $68,000 for 4-8 weeks as the LTH cohort completes distribution, similar to previous accumulation phases. Confirming signals include a flattening daily realized loss and positive ETF flows without immediate price increases.
Bear case: A sustained daily close below the $60,000 support triggers a secondary capitulation, potentially falling into the $52,000-$55,000 range, representing a 45-50% pullback. Signals from this scenario include a deterioration in the Fear and Greed Index, continued net ETF outflows, and an LTH-SOPR below 0.90, indicating a shift to bear market conditions.
The key indicator to watch is whether daily losses realized by LTH begin to compress, signaling distribution exhaustion; a lack of compression suggests capitulation in progress.
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Disclaimer: Coinspeaker is committed to providing unbiased and transparent reporting. This article is intended to provide accurate and current information, but should not be considered financial or investment advice. Because market conditions can change quickly, we encourage you to verify the information for yourself and consult a professional before making any decisions based on this content.
Daniel Frances is a technical writer and Web3 educator specializing in macroeconomics and DeFi mechanics. Hailing from crypto since 2017, Daniel leverages his experience in on-chain analytics to write evidence-based reports and in-depth guides. He holds certifications from the Blockchain Council and is dedicated to providing “insight gain” that overcomes market hype to find real utility for blockchain.
