Bitcoin (BTC) has faced sustained downside pressure, with the downtrend continuing from its October 2025 highs. Amid this prolonged downtrend, long-term Bitcoin holders saw their positions go from extreme profitability to heavy losses.
As a result, some long-term holders capitulated and closed their positions at a loss. However, with prolonged loss-making, it appears long-term holders are exhausted.
Bitcoin LTH Activity Reached Bear Market Levels
Despite continued market weakness, long-term Bitcoin holders have significantly reduced their spending.
According to Darkfost, LTH activity has declined, returning to levels typically seen during bear markets. Such a decline, given current market conditions, suggests reduced sales activity from the cohort.
In fact, the group reduced the realization of profits or losses in equal proportions. According to Checkonchain data, the LTH sell-side risk ratio fell to 0.000395, at press time, after touching the October 2025 low, suggesting exhausted selling pressure.
As a result, the profit realized by long-term holders fell to 1.1k BTC, the lowest since September 2022. At the same time, their realized loss decreased to 2.7k BTC, highlighting the reduction in loss-making activities within the cohort.
Such market conditions suggest that fewer holders are exiting the market, regardless of their current position; instead, they turned to detention. Thus, most holders have shown market indifference and are currently waiting for the next market move.
Historically, these market conditions have coincided with cycle lows, when sellers lose their incentive to sell and weaker hands exit the market.
This creates room for accumulation and paves the way for further price action. Darkfost’s analysis noted that reduced long-term holder (LTH) activity could keep BTC in a consolidation phase.
And BTC?
Although long-term holders have significantly reduced their spending, this change has not yet caused the price of Bitcoin to rise. BTC remains structurally weak, with bearish momentum still dominant.
In fact, at the time of writing, Bitcoin (BTC) was trading at $69,800 after falling 0.32% on the daily charts, indicating dominant downside volatility.
Additionally, Bitcoin momentum and directional indicators further showed this structural weakness. Looking at the Directional Movement Index, its positive index is barely holding above its negative index, which was at 22.
At the same time, ADXR remained above ADX, suggesting that the trend is weaker than the recent average and continually losing momentum. Taken together, these indicators suggest strong downside risk, and the current situation is likely to persist.
The Future Grand Trend (FGT) indicator clearly shows the likelihood of this trend continuing. Based on FGT, BTC has even more room to decline, with $63,000 serving as critical support.
However, with LTH reducing selling pressure, this provides short-term relief, and such sustained behavior could see BTC hold between $65,000 and $74,000.
Final Summary
- Activity among long-term Bitcoin holders has fallen to bear market levels, signaling a reduction in selling pressure.
- BTC remains structurally weak, suggesting continued bearish dominance.
