River (RIVER) saw renewed interest from investors over the past day as the asset saw an 11% rally, while most gains in the broader cryptocurrency market remained in the 4% to 6% range.
This decision comes at a critical time. Community sentiment around RIVER has recently drifted toward neutral territory, reflecting a market marked by imbalance and indecision.
Despite the recent rebound, the overall outlook has not turned fully bullish, as a segment of investors continues to position themselves for a potential decline.
Capital inflows lead to higher prices
The recent price surge largely stems from increased capital inflows into the perpetual futures market, where traders have begun to allocate more funds to RIVER contracts in anticipation of further upside.
Data from CoinGlass shows that RIVER Open Interest, which tracks the total value of active perpetual contracts, increased by $31 million over the past day, reaching $196 million at the time of writing.
This 16% increase generally reflects growing confidence in the direction traders expect the market to take. In this case, the signal was bullish. In the early hours of Saturday, the IO-weighted funding rate stood at 0.0442%, confirming that most leveraged traders were positioned on the long side.
For further context, the IO-weighted funding rate measures where the majority of capital is positioned in perpetual contracts.
When the rate becomes positive, it indicates that traders holding long positions are paying funding fees for short positions, reflecting bullish positioning. On the other hand, a negative reading suggests that bearish positions dominate.
Increasing bearish activity introduces risk
Despite the influx of capital, not all investors share this bullish outlook. Some traders have started to increase their short exposure, creating additional downside risk.
According to data from CoinGlassthe long/short ratio on major exchanges indicates that traders on both Binance And OKX currently rather bearish, while sales volume continues to increase.
This ratio measures the balance between long and short positions. A reading below 1 indicates that sales volume is dominating, while a reading above 1 signals stronger bullish activity.
At the time of writing, Binance recorded a long/short ratio of 0.56, and OKX reported an even lower ratio of 0.36.
Both readings remain well below the neutral threshold of 1, highlighting the growing presence of bearish positioning.
Additionally, Binance currently dominates RIVER’s trading activity with a volume of approximately $431 million, while OKX follows with approximately $387.62 million, giving both platforms considerable influence over near-term price direction.
These exchanges also control a substantial portion of RIVER’s perpetual open interests. Binance holds around $57.23 million, while OKX accounts for $23.83 million. Due to this concentration of capital, traders operating on these platforms could strongly influence the short-term price trajectory of the asset.
Buyers appear in traditionally bearish territory
The Accumulation/Distribution (A/D) indicator suggests that buyers have started to enter the market, even in what has historically been a bearish zone.
Since March 9, the indicator has shown a notable shift towards accumulation. During this period, the A/D metric increased from -24.11 million RIVER to -22.58 million RIVER, indicating that buying pressure has recently exceeded selling pressure.
This development supports the idea that the short-term trend is becoming bullish. However, caution remains in order.
Although the indicator has improved, it is still trading in negative territory overall, meaning the market has not completely overcome the selling pressure that dominated the previous weeks. As a result, even though buyers have started to step in, the broader structure still reflects lingering bearish influence.
Final summary
- RIVER is recovering as capital inflows increase significantly in the perpetual market.
- Trading volume suggests that Binance and OKX traders remain cautious, leaving room for additional downside risk.
