Bitfinex analysts pointed to an improving but uneven wave of demand and areas of resistance where short-term holders are exiting at a standstill.
Bitcoin (BTC) is currently on a roll, surpassing the $80,000 mark and touching base above $81,000. Although this rally could be a reason for positive sentiment, market experts believe otherwise.
In a weekly report from cryptocurrency exchange Bitfinex, analysts warned that bitcoin’s rally to $80,000 is misleading because the market is not positioned for an upward move. According to analysts, BTC is currently stuck between bulls and bears, conviction and caution. Given market conditions, the leading digital asset will likely lean negative rather than positive.
A misleading rally
To support their claims, Bitfinex analysts pointed to an improving but uneven wave of demand. Based on historical data, BTC rebounds have been supported by strong demand, but that is not the case this time.
Underlying demand is improving thanks to continued inflows of spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and continued accumulation from institutions like Strategy. However, demand is not strong enough to absorb air supply and confirm a lasting breakout. In fact, BTC is in a fragile but constructive range, with short-term holders taking profits as they exit their near-breakeven positions.
“This behavior is a classic pattern in bear markets: whenever price approaches the breakeven point of the most price-sensitive cohort, the incentive to exit positions overwhelms incoming demand, exhausting bullish momentum,” the analysts said.
Bitcoin requires strong spot demand to support a rally. However, given a divided macroeconomic environment, lack of liquidity tailwinds, and continued geopolitical risk in the Middle East, this may seem unlikely in the near term.
BTC bias tilts towards downward pressure
Furthermore, bitcoin’s ongoing breakout stalled at the $78,000-$79,000 resistance zone, not because of aggressive selling, but because of profit-taking by short-term holders. This zone is dense and defined by metrics such as true market average, short-term holder realized price, and weekly open. These indicators also serve as support and resistance levels.
As resistance confirms general challenges, Bitfinex believes the bias leans towards further downward pressure. At the same time, analysts see the possibility of a breakout of current resistance levels as ETF inflows and institutional accumulation continue.
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Failure to recover and maintain the current resistance level above will keep the $70,000 low as the next key support zone, thus maintaining BTC’s downward momentum.
