Bitcoin (BTC) is on the verge of a decisive market junction and must keep more than $ 92,500 to maintain a bullish dynamic, according to a recent report Glass nose.
The report highlighted the parallels between the current price structure and previous cycle peaks, which raises concerns about the potential risks for the purchase of pressure.
Food conditions and historical models
A key metric in the evaluation of the vulnerability of Bitcoin is the offer held by short -term holders (STH), which reflects the models observed in May 2021. Similar accumulation trends during this cycle led to An increased sensitivity to lower prices, triggering large -scale distribution events.
The current Bitcoin price oscillates between $ 1,000 and $ 5,000 above the STH cost base of $ 92,500. This level has historically acted as a critical pivot point, marking the border between Taurus and Bear trends.
If Bitcoin falls below this threshold, the report warns against a possible sales cascade, recalling the previous corrections after all time (ATH) in May and November 2021, as well as February and April of last year .
The previous corrections followed a familiar model: a gathering in the discovery of prices followed by a consolidation phase where the supply density made increases and the sale of pressure supports.
Historical data suggest that if the lowering conditions are intensifying, Bitcoin could go back to the lower strip of the STH cost model, which is currently $ 71,600.
The report added that if Bitcoin violated the $ 92,500 threshold, the sale of panic among short -term holders could accelerate losses. Conversely, if the demand remains strong, the BTC could stabilize above its ATH and establish a new commercial range, delaying other risks of decline.
Feeling of derivatives
The momentum of the market gets rid of, reflected in the weakening of open interest and the drop in perpetual term financing rates.
While Bitcoin and Ethereum (ETH) financing rates remain slightly positive, Solana (soil) and even saw the financing rates become negative, signaling a change towards a feeling of risk.
The contraction of open interests (OI) also supports this risk trend, as the same dived 52.1%. Compared, Bitcoin OI decreased around 11.1%.
The sharp drop in same, the same highlights a rapid retirement of speculative capital, which suggests that traders come out of the risky bets in the middle of an increasing uncertainty of the market.
Mentioned in this article
