In today’s Bitcoin news, BTC rose from $61,100 to over $63,200 on June 11, 2026, a +3% gain triggered in a single session after President Trump announced he had called off planned strikes against Iran and indicated a peace deal could be signed as soon as the weekend.
Here’s the central tension this article uncovers: One of the two forces behind the worst Bitcoin ETF outflow streak since these products launched in 2024 has now dissipated. The other, the June 16-17 Federal Reserve meeting, was not.
Together, these two forces have produced $4.4 billion in net outflows from Bitcoin ETFs over 13 consecutive sessions. The geopolitical half of this equation is gone. Half of monetary policy lands in less than a week.
Bitcoin News Today: BTC Jumps +3%: What Trump’s Iran Decision Really Means for BTC
Trump’s announcement had an immediate impact on the market by calling off planned strikes against Iran and indicating that Tehran was close to a peace agreement.
As a result, Bitcoin jumped +3%, from $61,100 to $63,400, aligning with a broader rally: the S&P 500 rose 1.75%, the Nasdaq rose 2.5%, and the Dow gained over 900 points.
Oil prices also fell, with Brent crude falling around 3% to near $90 a barrel as concerns about supply disruptions eased. This calls into question the narrative of Bitcoin as a safe haven; During heightened tensions with Iran, Bitcoin fell alongside stocks, while gold did not.
Once geopolitical risk is removed, institutional capital could flow back into Bitcoin, reversing fear-driven outflows of $4.4 billion from BTC ETFs.
$BTC continues to consolidate within the range.
My plan for Bitcoin is pretty simple here since we are still stuck in this range.
There hasn’t been a lot of liquidity this week and we have accumulated a lot of liquidity on both sides of the range.
For this reason, I am looking for exchanges after we… pic.twitter.com/op4ovDxpdR
– Lennaert Snyder (@LennaertSnyder) June 12, 2026
Here are the three scenarios read on the evolution of the price of Bitcoin based on the Iranian catalyst alone:
- Bull: The $63,200 level is a new low, ETF outflows stabilize in the sessions leading up to the Fed meeting, and Bitcoin consolidates in the $63,000-65,000 range through June 16.
- Base: Bitcoin drifts between $61,500 and $63,500 amid choppy trading ahead of FOMC; geopolitical risk has eased, but institutional buyers are waiting for the Fed before committing new capital.
- Bear: Iran relief rally sold out. Bitcoin fails to hold $63,000, falls back towards $61,100 and Bitcoin ETF outflow sequence resumes ahead of Fed decision.
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Can Bitcoin hold $63,400, or will the Fed kill the rally?
(SOURCE: TradingView)
Separately, the June 2026 Federal Reserve meeting is scheduled for June 16-17, with a policy decision and press conference on June 17. Currently, market expectations for the Fed to hold rates steady are at 98%.
While this may seem reassuring, the rate decision will likely have little impact on Bitcoin. What matters most is Fed Chairman Powell’s forecast for future rate cuts for the remainder of 2026 and into 2027.
The Fed’s Dot Plot provides insight into policymakers’ expectations for interest rates. A downward move signals potential rate cuts, making risky assets like cryptocurrencies more attractive compared to cash and bonds; an upward or flat move suggests that rates will remain high, which is less favorable for Bitcoin.
This relationship explains recent institutional capital outflows, driven not only by geopolitical factors, but also by changing expectations for rate cuts for 2026.
For example, BlackRock IBIT, the largest spot Bitcoin ETF, suffered a loss of $1.34 billion in the week ending June 8. A political signal is necessary for institutional funds to return, beyond just the market recovery.
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The article Bitcoin News Today: BTC jumps +3% as Trump calls off Iranian strikes but Fed could call it all off appeared first on 99Bitcoins.
