Bitcoin has reached a historic stage today, affecting $ 124,500 and setting a new summit of all time which initially fueled the hopes of a strong bull. The escape above the previous resistance levels triggered optimism among traders and investors, which saw it as a launch potential for the next stage of the rally. However, the euphoria was short -lived – BTC quickly retraced $ 121,500, aroused a debate on the question of whether the market could be on the verge of a deeper correction.
According to cryptocurrency data, the net metric not performed by profit / loss (NUPL) behaves differently compared to past market cycles. In anterior bull races, NUPL peaks often coincided with overheated conditions and net inversions. This time, however, the trajectory of the indicator suggests a more progressive and measured rise, reflecting a change towards a more advanced and institutionalized market structure. Analysts attribute this change to the growing presence of long-term investors and the impact of Bitcoin Spot ETF based in the United States, which have contributed to smoothing volatility and reducing extreme lucrative events.
Although the long -term perspectives of the BTC remain optimistic, the coming sessions will be crucial to determine whether this withdrawal is a healthy reset or the start of a wider correction. Merchants are now looking at both the trends in price action and the NUPL for the clues on the next decisive move.
Bitcoin NUPL Data points to a single cycle structure
According to analyst Yonsei Dent, the net metric not carried out by profit / loss (NUPL) remains one of the most revealing indicators on the chain to assess the feeling of the market and the positioning of the cycle. NUPL measures the proportion of profit parts in relation to the loss.
Historically, the upper market cycle have coincided with NUPL peaks. During the 2017 cycle, metrics formed a single major peak before a clear reversal. In 2021, he produced two separate peaks, each aligning with an overheated price action wave and subsequent corrections.
In the current cycle, Nupl seems to try a third peak, a behavior that we do not see in previous bull races. Unlike previous cycles characterized by high and singular blowing highs, the current market advances in waves in stages. Dent attributes this structural change largely to the influx of institutional capital, pulled in part by the growth of the FNB Bitcoin of Spot based in the United States.
This institutional presence has increased the size, liquidity and stability of the market, but also moderated extreme percentage gains observed in previous rallies. Although this environment can prolong the duration of the bull market, it also suggests a reduced probability of short -term and overheated overvoltages.
In practical terms, this means that the market can see longer and more sustained asumension trends with less deep corrections, rather than volatile boom and bottles of previous cycles. Traders and investors who look at NUPL will look closely if this third potential peak is fully formed – and if it signals a more temperate but prolonged phase of Bitcoin growth.
Resistance rejection to the new top of all time
On the 12 -hour table, Bitcoin (BTC) is negotiated at $ 121,596, down 1.37% after briefly touched $ 124,501 – a new summit of all time. This decision marks another test of the level of resistance of $ 123,217, which acted as a ceiling for price action. Net rejection above this area suggests high sales pressure at higher levels, at least in the short term.
Despite the hindsight, the BTC remains in a clear bullish structure, holding well above its 50 SMA ($ 117,395), 100 SMA ($ 114,833) and 200 SMA ($ 110,073). These mobile averages increase, reflecting a strong underlying impulse. The recent increase in early August almost $ 113,000 shows that bulls are still controlling the medium -term trend.
The area from $ 123,000 to $ 124,000 remains the critical escape zone to monitor. A confirmed fence greater than $ 124,000 could open the door to other gains and trigger the purchase of Momentum, which potentially leads to a new price discovery. Unpipening, immediate support is nearly $ 120,000, followed by a stronger support at $ 117,000, where the 50 SMA lines up with previous consolidation.
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