Bitcoin is approaching a price level which has, without exception, led to the absolute bottom of every major bear market cycle in its history, and on-chain indicators show the moment of maximum opportunity could be close for Bitcoin traders to capitalize on an upcoming rally.
Bitcoin All-Time Low at 200-Week Moving Average
A technical level held on with incredible consistency throughout over a decade of Bitcoin price history. This technical level is actually the 200-week moving average. Bitcoin has never closed a weekly candle significantly below the long-term 200-week moving average, even during the pandemic crash of 2020 and the cycle bottom of late 2022, and has, in each case, staged a powerful rally every time it has touched it.
The chart below shows that Bitcoin moves in cycles, with each correction eventually calming down near this long-term average before a rally phase begins. Notably, Bitcoin price action followed this same pattern in 2015, 2018, and 2022. Each time, extended pullbacks only ended after Bitcoin touched or briefly fell below the 200-week moving average.
The chart also adds a 14-month Relative Strength Index reading directly onto the price via a color-coded dot system. Red dots highlight overbought euphoria around cycle peaks, while blue dots signal deep oversold conditions consistent with capitulation lows. The green and yellow dots, on the other hand, populate the intermediate phases of mid-cycle recovery and expansion.
Currently, BTC is trading just above this same line again, putting the price in a position that has historically led to a bottom. Blue dots are once again starting to form along the current price trajectory. This is precisely the RSI pattern that appeared at the 2015 low, 2018-2019 low, and the bottom 2022.
If the story holds true, then the distance between the current price and a confirmed cycle bottom could be very small indeed. Bitcoin can either start a new rally from here or reverse course from here to retest $60,000 before entering the rally.
Larger distribution structure points towards $500,000
According to crypto analyst Coinvo Trading, a multi-year Cup and Handle formation is playing out on Bitcoin’s monthly chart. The bullish structure spans several years, with the rounded cut forming from mid-2021 to early 2025. The break in neckline strength occurred in 2025, and the handle phase of the pattern has formed since then.
As it stands, BTC is we are now approaching the final stages of this training. Coinvo Trading projected the measured price target for this breakout at $505,761, derived from projecting the full depth of the cup formation above the breakout level. “Once it breaks, it’s too late,” warns the analyst.
Featured image from Pngtree, chart from Tradingview.com
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