Key notes
- Political uncertainty related to the Trump investigation sent U.S. stocks and Bitcoin lower, with traders moving large volumes to exchanges.
- On-chain data reveals that short-term investors are capitulating faster than whales can accumulate, creating unbalanced market dynamics.
- Technical analysis shows that Bitcoin must reclaim the $99,000 level to avoid retesting the $89,000 support zone projected by the double top pattern.
Bitcoin
BTC
$92,842
24h volatility:
1.0%
Market capitalization:
$1.85 ton
Flight. 24h:
$110.43 billion
the price plunged to $92,300 on Tuesday (Nov. 18) as U.S. stocks faltered during a critical vote in Congress launching an investigation into President Trump. Political turmoil lowered risk sentiment, with the Nasdaq down 0.59% and the S&P 500 down 0.35%. Bitcoin traders reacted strongly, moving unusually large volumes of BTC onto exchanges.
The drop below $92,300 occurred despite positive sentiment earlier in the week after Michael Saylor confirmed Strategy’s $835 million purchase of Bitcoin on Monday. As strategic whales continue to accumulate and become weak, on-chain data suggests that short-term holders are unwinding their positions at a much faster rate.
According to CryptoQuant analyst JA Maartun, short-term holders transferred 65,200 BTC to exchanges at a loss. The attached P&L chart published on X tracks the full profile of the holder’s short-term losses during the transfer. At current prices near $93,500, the inflow represents approximately $610 million in potential new sell-side supply.
JA Maartun, CryptoQuant analyst | Source: X.com
Such large foreign exchange deposits generally weaken prospects for an immediate rebound. According to data from CoinMarketCap, Bitcoin trading volume increased by more than 34% on Tuesday, despite price stagnation, reflecting the impact of new supply entering the market. Without a catalyst to counter political pressure on the crypto-friendly Trump administration, Bitcoin price could remain exposed to deeper corrective action.
Bitcoin Price Forecast: Double Top Breakdown Still Dominates the Trend
Bitcoin price is trading around $93,317, stabilizing after hitting an intraday low near $90,900, but the broader trend remains defined by a double-top split on the 12-hour chart. The model’s projected target sits near $89,177, matching the lower Bollinger band and strengthening the area as the next major support.
The Bollinger Bands (20, SMA) show a clear downward expansion. The upper band at $108,961 reflects the level Bitcoin must recover to reverse the breakdown structure, while the middle band around $99,069 now acts as firm resistance. Bitcoin’s inability to close above this midpoint in recent sessions confirms continued bearish momentum.
Bitcoin (BTC) Price Technical Analysis | Trading View
The double-top profitability ratio at 60.60% and a downside completion of 58.23% highlight that the bears have already executed most of the pattern but still retain control until the lower target is tested or invalidated. The breakout probability tool at 1.00 also reflects that BTC remains fully aligned with the downside continuation pattern.
The RSI on a 12-hour time frame sits at 35, hovering just above oversold conditions. While this typically signals a potential relief rebound, BTC has historically continued to decline when RSI trends stabilized below 40 during high-volume FX inflows, similar to the conditions highlighted this week.
Bitcoin will need to reclaim the $99,000-$100,000 region to move the forecast away from the bearish target. Failure to do so increases the likelihood of a retest of $89,000, especially if political volatility or further capitulation by short-term holders persists.
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Disclaimer: Coinspeaker is committed to providing unbiased and transparent reporting. This article is intended to provide accurate and current information, but should not be considered financial or investment advice. Because market conditions can change quickly, we encourage you to verify the information for yourself and consult a professional before making any decisions based on this content.
Ibrahim Ajibade is a seasoned research analyst with experience supporting various Web3 startups and financial organizations. He completed his undergraduate degree in Economics and is currently studying for a Master’s degree in Blockchain and Distributed Ledger technologies at the University of Malta.
Ibrahim Ajibade on LinkedIn
