Bitcoin is trading near $110,000, but its long-term profit and loss signal shows the same curve alignment that preceded each of the three selloffs in its history. The 365-day moving average of the PnL Index, tracked by CryptoQuant, reached similar numbers in 2013, 2017 and 2021, and each time there was a decline of around 75-80% the following year.
During these periods, the market value increased from $1,100 to $200, then from $19,700 to $3,200, and later from $69,000 to $15,500. Each reset aligned with the halving pattern that reduces new supply of Bitcoin every four years, shaping the recurring cycle of expansion and contraction.
The current curve is once again approaching its upper limit, which shows that profit taking is now greater than new accumulations.
The Bitcoin market only works if the 4-year cycle theory is wrong. pic.twitter.com/9jsWFEqE8J
If the proportional pattern repeats, a full retracement could place Bitcoin between $22,000 and $30,000 before the next halving rally begins. On-chain metrics show a cooling of realized gains, a reduction in trading intensity, and minor outflows from long-term portfolios – all typical of late-cycle phases.
The Future of Bitcoin
The timeline is clear for CryptoQuant’s Ki Young Ju: one year of acceleration, one of peak formation, and two of correction before the next halving restarts the pattern. The current slope of the PnL Index, which has been flattening since its 2024 high, aligns perfectly with its historical pace.
So, the future of Bitcoin depends on whether this four-year cycle continues to control the market or if it eventually breaks. If this holds, the next deep reset could be the start of the 2026 accumulation phase.
