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According to a recent post of cryptocurrency of the contributor Carmelo Aleman, Bitcoin (BTC) is “still far from a real supply shock”. The analyst cited several chain measures to affirm that despite the drop in exchange reserves, the main cryptocurrency is unlikely to deal with a real scarcity of short-term supply.
Bitcoin Supply Shock? Not yet
Since April 21, BTC has been negotiated in a tight range between $ 91,500 and $ 95,800, offering few signals on its next directional movement. While some analysts have repeatedly highlighted a potential tender shock that could generate the much higher bitcoin price, Aleman’s analysis offers a more prudent perspective.
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According to Aleman, BTC reserves on centralized exchanges (CEX) have decreased regularly in the past year. More specifically, the reserves went from 2,942,077 BTC on November 11 to 2,490,318 BTC on April 28 – marking a decrease of 15.35% in just five months.
During the same period, the capitalization made of Bitcoin – a metric which calculates the total value of the BTC according to the price during which each piece was moved for the last time – increased from $ 669.32 billion to $ 883.03 billion. This reflects an increase in real capital invested in the Bitcoin network, rather than market speculation.
Aleman explains that, as the BTC becomes more “expensive”, a purchase of around 500,000 BTC at current prices could potentially generate the price of cryptocurrency at $ 130,000 to $ 140,000. However, he warns that such a scenario would likely trigger a significant sales pressure for minors. He adds:
This behavior could counter the drop in exchange reserves, as historically, minors tend to sell more as the price increases. Thus, even if the reserves continue to drop, prices overvoltage will probably encourage enough sale to partially compensate for this drop.
The analyst concludes that a real supply shock in this market cycle is unlikely unless Bitcoin sees a massive influx of capital – enough to push its capitalization made to three or four times its current level.
The techniques point to BTC Breakout
Despite the low probability of a gathering focused on supply, everything is not lost for the leading digital asset. Several technical indicators point to an imminent bullish Rally for cryptocurrency.
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In particular, the weekly Bitcoin (RSI) relative force index recently broken A long -standing downward trend line, indicating a potential momentum lag. This development could help BTC recover the $ 100,000 mark in the coming weeks.
In addition, recent chain data show that short -term holders are impudent The sale of their BTC – even in the red – which can point out an increasing confidence of investors and a potential optimistic inversion. At the time of the press, BTC is traded at $ 94,374, down 0.4% in the last 24 hours.
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