Although many view declining Bitcoin yields as a natural sign of maturity, it raises deeper questions about the validity of the so-called Bitcoin cycle theory.
The research firm predicted a cycle high of $125,000 for the end of the year using a similar methodology that correctly predicted the bear market bottom in October 2022.
The price target appears modest compared to predictions from other industry insiders. Geoff Kendrick, global head of digital assets research at Standard Chartered, predicted a Bitcoin price of $200,000 for late 2025 as the record $19 billion liquidation event could turn into a buying opportunity for investors.
In a February interview, Kendrick predicted that Bitcoin could reach $500,000 by the end of his second term in 2028. These predictions reflect optimism about regulatory tailwinds and institutional adoption, despite concerns about retail accessibility.
The popular stock-to-flow model has been widely cited as predicting Bitcoin’s rise to $1 million. However, 10x Research’s more conservative methodology questions whether the current bull market can maintain its momentum beyond the traditional four-year cycle.
Smart money holdings included tokens such as Pump.fun and meme coin PEPE before Bitcoin in their wallets. The positioning suggests that sophisticated traders are balancing speculation with exposure to major crypto assets despite price concerns.
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