Talk of a possible altcoin season this cycle has since subsided compared to previous years, despite recent fall in the price of Bitcoin (BTC) and domination. Notably, a crypto analyst shared a new long-term chart showing the altcoin’s total market cap against Bitcoin at a level that historically preceded major alt seasons. According to his analysis, the alternative market has completely reset and could be preparing for a new altcoin season if historical trends play out as expected.
Historic Alternate Season Pattern Forms as Bitcoin Ratio Reaches Base Zone
In a recent analysis on X, market expert @CyrilXBT common a monthly chart tracking the ratio of the total crypto market, excluding the top 10 assets, to Bitcoin. According to the analysis, the chart currently sits at around 0.129, a level the analyst describes as the same base or accumulation zone that has kicked off every major altcoin season in crypto history.
@CyrilXBT noted that this area is where all alternate seasons are born, with each past altcoin rally from the moment the ratio stopped falling and stabilized around the range of $0.12 to $0.13. Looking at the chart, the analyst noted that during the 2015-2016 cycle, the ratio starts near zero and remains stable, with minimal volatility. Following this, a spectacular increase occurred during the Running of the bulls 2017-2018pushing the altcoin/Bitcoin ratio above 0.3, marking one of the first major alt seasons.
In 2020, the ratio fell back below the 0.129 level, erasing most of its earlier gains as it consolidated near the low-distance accumulation/basing zone. Notably, 2021 marked the biggest peak of the altcoin season in history, with the ratio exploding upwards to reach over 0.55 amid a bullish market frenzy. During this period, volume reached new highs, with bars surpassing those of previous years.
The new conditions of the alternate season are taking shape
Similar to the 2020 crash, the 2022-2024 cycle saw a post-peak correction, with the ratio trending downward. Bitcoin regained its dominance. In the current 2025-2026 cycle, the altcoin vs Bitcoin ratio has finally returned to the historically significant accumulation zone of 0.129, with BTC.D fall at an annual minimum of 57.9%.
@CyrilXBT suggested that the current positioning reflects the pre-season setup that led to a major altcoin boom in previous years. He noted that the ascending trendline connecting successive altcoin season peaks on the chart indicates a ratio of around 0.80 to 0.90 as the next potential target for this cycle.
As the ratio stabilizes and historical trends repeat, @CyrilXBT says recent market performance does not indicate that altcoins are dead. Rather, it shows that the market has completely reset and could quietly create the conditions of its next alternative season.
Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com
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