Key takeaways
What’s Next for Bitcoin Price?
According to one analyst, a widening price range was likely to occur until OG and LTH finished unloading.
How is the market positioned in the short term?
Options flows show a slight bullish bias through November, but traders remain cautious as the end of the year approaches.
Bitcoin (BTC) has become boring lately. As an asset perceived as risky, you can easily predict its next direction by tracking US stocks and overall liquidity.
But the crypto asset has shown random dislocation compared to the Nasdaq Composite and even gold. This made assessment more difficult.
In October, for example, gold had its moment; now the Nasdaq followed suit, but BTC continued to underperform, note Head of Research at CryptoQuant, Julio Moreno.
Source: CryptoQuant
As Nasdaq and gold hit new highs last month, BTC was in decline, losing more than $16,000, falling from $126,000 to $110,000.
The results? BTC saw its first red “Uptober” since 2028. Sentiment deteriorated, unsettling part of CT (Crypto Twitter), who feared that we could enter the cyclical “bear phase”.
“IPO moment” or consolidation phase?
However, others made a contrarian bet: consolidation instead of a “bearish phase” until 2026.
According to Jordi Visser, analyst at 22V Research, BTC could be in its “IPO moment.” quoting OG distribution and draw parallels with traditional initial public offerings (IPOs).
Visser noted,
“When a company goes public and early investors begin to sell their positions, the stock often consolidates, even during broader market rallies.”
BTC OG, who have held the asset for several years, along with other LTHs (long-term holders), have entered the rally.
In fact, LTHs unloaded throughout the second half of the year, dumping 383,000 BTC (around $42 billion) in October alone, exceeding ETF application.
Source: CryptoQuant
However, Visser said the distribution does not mean BTC is dying. On the other hand, it is a sign of maturity since Treasury bills and ETFs step in to offer exit liquidity to early investors, like IPOs.
As a result, BTC could enter a consolidation phase, similar to those experienced by Facebook and Google after their IPOs. He added,
“IPO distribution periods typically last 6 to 18 months. We’ve probably been engaged in this process for several months, but we probably haven’t finished it.”
Following post-IPO consolidation, technology stocks have recovered, Visser pointed out. His view was echoed by Matt Hougan, CIO of Bitwise, call the projection of a “precise state of the BTC market”.
Options flows are bullish through November
That said, Options flow highlighted bullish expectations through the end of November, but with more cautious positioning towards the end of the year.
Notably, there were higher call volumes (green bars) around $112,000 to $120,000, suggesting near-term uptrends (late November).
Source: Arkham
However, in December there was an uptick in selling activity around $105,000, suggesting hedging or a cautious tone late in the year.
