536 days after the halving, Bitcoin’s $126,000 rally is only heating up, and analysts say the real breakout could be next.
Bitcoin (BTC) hit a new all-time high of $126,100 on Monday. However, profit-taking dominated the market and crypto assets fell 4%. by Friday. Then came the Trump-induced fear, and BTC plunged to $101,000 on some exchanges before recovering to $112,000 at press time.
Despite this, new data suggests that the real bull phase of the market may still be ahead.
The Momentum of Bitcoin’s “Hot Zone”
Market data from Binance indicates that Bitcoin has entered an important phase of its post-halving cycle and is showing signs of measured strength rather than a speculative bubble. As of this week, more than 530 days since the April 20, 2024 halving, Bitcoin is trading at nearly $112,000, an 85% increase from its daily halving price of around $63,800.
The data positions the market at 35% over its typical four-year cycle, a midpoint historically characterized by consistent but controlled upward momentum.
CryptoQuant noted that the cryptocurrency remains comfortably below overheating levels. The Z-Score, a measure used to assess price deviation from historical averages, currently stands at 1.47. This places Bitcoin in a zone of “neutral momentum,” well below the 2.5 threshold that previously indicated speculative excess and impending corrections.
On top of that, the 30-day moving average sits at around $115,913 and reflects a steady rise rather than a parabolic rise.
Volatility indicators further support the narrative of a steady rise. Data from Binance shows Bitcoin’s 30-day standard deviation at around $4,540, indicating low volatility and potential price compression. Interestingly, these conditions often precede major directional moves if they are supported by new liquidity inflows.
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Historically, Bitcoin price peaks have occurred between 500 and 600 days after each halving, a window that has seen major cycle highs in 2013, 2017, and 2021. As the current cycle approaches this range, traders are closely watching for signs of acceleration or deviation from past patterns.
As long-term holders and institutions continue to consolidate their positions, the market remains in a phase of balanced optimism. The coming months will test whether Bitcoin repeats its familiar trajectory of expansion and peak or whether it evolves into a more stable and less volatile phase of growth.
No euphoria yet
Bitcoin Vector analysis also echoes a similar sentiment. Although long-term holders moving coins to exchanges suggest some selling, which has resulted in a slight pullback, activity is moderate and persistent rather than excessive. The market shows no signs of euphoria.
If this transfer spike subsides while on-chain fundamentals remain strong, it would validate confidence in Bitcoin’s uptrend, supporting continued momentum into the fourth quarter.
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