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Home»Regulation»Bitmain Just Cut Mining Rig Prices, Proving the Market’s Oldest ‘Bitcoin Rule’ is Officially Dead
Regulation

Bitmain Just Cut Mining Rig Prices, Proving the Market’s Oldest ‘Bitcoin Rule’ is Officially Dead

December 30, 2025No Comments
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Bitmain cut Bitcoin mining rig prices on December 23 after miners’ revenue per unit of hashrate fell in November.

The discounts, which extend to current-generation hydro and immersion products, come in a cycle in which Bitcoin’s price strength has not translated into the kind of mining margin expansion that previously led to hardware shortages and rapid markups.

Market capitalization $1.74T

24h volume $47.23 billion

An absolute record $126,173.18

According to TheMinerMag, a batch of containers for the S19 XP+ Hydro (around 19 J/TH) costs almost $4/TH, with shipping expected to begin in January 2026.

The same report cites internal price lists showing quotes as low as $3/TH for some variants of the S19 Hydro and between $7-8/TH for the new S21 immersion or hydro models before coupons.

Bitmain has bundled some of these deals with hosting plans, with electricity rates listed between 5.5 and 7.0¢/kWh plus around 0.3¢ management fees in several geographies.

Bitcoin Miner Metrics
Metric Recent data point
Bitmain promotional price (bundled basis) ~$4/TH for S19 XP+ Hydro Container Pack (Dec 23 Promo), shipping from January 2026
Range cited in internal lists As low as ~$3/TH (some S19 Hydro), ~$7 – $8/TH (some S21 hydro/immersion), before coupons
Hosting price range in bundles ~5.5–7.0¢/kWh + ~0.3¢ management fees
Hashprice (November 2025 average) $39.82/PH/day
Hashprice (November 22, 2025) $35.06/PH/day (new low)
Network difficulty (monthly average for November 2025) ~153.33T (+2.7% m/m)

Compressed hashprice rewrites miner economics and ASIC demand

The price action reflects a fundamental constraint: miner demand clears ROI calculations when the hash price remains compressed.

Luxor’s retrospective analysis for November 2025 places the USD hash price at an average of $39.82/PH/day, with a print of $35.06 on November 22.

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In the same monthly review, Luxor said transaction fees accounted for a small share of rewards during the period, limiting relief for operators as network difficulty averaged around 153.33T.

This combination changes buyer behavior in a way that blunts “Rising BTC Equals Rising ASICs.”

Hashprice is actually income per hashrate unit, and Luxor defines it as daily income per PH before costs.

At $40/PH/day, gross income equates to approximately $0.040/TH/day because one PH equals 1,000 TH.

A 200 TH/s rig would bring in around $8 per day at that level.

If the machine operates at approximately 19 J/TH, the power consumption is approximately 3.8 kW (19 J/TH times 200 TH/s), or approximately 91.2 kWh per day.

At $0.06/kWh, a midpoint in the hosting price range cited by TheMinerMag, the cost of energy is approximately $5.47 per day.

That leaves about $2.53 per day before installation fees, repairs, downtime, pool fees and discounts.

With a hardware cost of $4/TH, a 200 TH machine costs around $800, representing a simple ROI of almost 316 days on this margin.

When buyers sign up for nearly a year’s ROI before routine operational frictions, platforms’ equilibrium price becomes tied to IRR thresholds rather than scarcity narratives.

This framework also helps explain why discounts can extend to newer products without immediately triggering a higher price revision.

A change is also underway on the supply side

Previous cycles saw long lead times and fragmented distribution amplify shortages, allowing OEMs and resellers to quickly reassess inventory during peak demand.

This cycle resembles a more industrial market, where manufacturers manage their revenue against competition from the aftermarket and multiple product tiers.

BC GameBC Game

TheMinerMag characterized the scale of Bitmain’s cuts as a response to a weak economy and tighter competition, rather than a single promotional window.

The deviation from the previous mania remains visible in historical $/TH price comparisons.

According to Digital Mining Solutions, hardware in the 25-38 J/TH range was trading around $105/TH in November 2021, up from around $12/TH in March 2024, even as Bitcoin posted an all-time high during this period.

The comparison is not a perfect match between generations and form factors, but it captures the directional shift in “hashrate purchasing power” that miners face when network hashrate and difficulty revalue faster than fee revenue.

The machine hosting offering offered by Bitmain also indicates where scarcity has migrated.

The combination moves the sales pitch from a simple investment decision to an end-to-end operational proposition: energy procurement, deployment and operations.

In a market where it is difficult to obtain efficient megawatts at predictable prices, access to electricity can be a major constraint.

This makes hosting partnerships and containerized deployments a lever to convert price-sensitive buyers.

Capital allocation outside of pure Bitcoin mining is another factor that determines the marginal demand for ASIC expansion.

Public market narratives increasingly reward miners who position data centers toward AI and high-performance computing rather than maximizing hashrate at all costs.

Several miners have pursued or evaluated AI-related data center strategies to diversify their revenues.

Investor attention around large deals in AI data centers has also boosted shares of some mining companies, strengthening incentives to direct additional investments toward infrastructure that can serve multiple revenue streams.

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Futures prices have reinforced caution about the mining economy in the near term

Luxor’s November review noted that the USD-denominated futures hash price for the period December 2025 to April 2026 fell by approximately 16-18% between November 3 and December 1, while BTC-denominated futures rose.

This divergence is important for operators who pay their expenses in dollars.

Bitcoin hash price forward curve (Source: Luxor)Bitcoin hash price forward curve (Source: Luxor)
Bitcoin hash price forward curve (Source: Luxor)

Even with improved BTC conditions, the daily budget constraint is USD cash flow, and the forward curve has reflected continued pressure.

Whether ASIC price will return to its beta from the previous cycle now depends less on Bitcoin’s band and more on a lasting change in fee contribution and net hash price following a distress response.

In the absence of a sustainable fee regime that increases revenue per TH for months rather than days, buyers have reason to view $/TH as a repayment instrument.

This can push OEMs to reduce entry costs, reduce delivery risks, and benefit from bundled operational support.

Bitmain’s January 2026 shipping window for its discounted bundles is expected to test how much of the market will engage in sub-$10/TH expansion within a hash price range of $35-$50/PH/day.

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