The XRP ETF market has already gained full approval from the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), with six products now managing over $1 billion in combined assets. Yet one major player remains absent: BlackRock.
According to Steven McClurg, CEO of Canary Capital, this may not last forever. He estimates that the world’s largest asset manager could file for a spot XRP ETF by late 2026 or early 2027, assuming current trends continue.
XRP ETF Assets Need to Reach $3 Billion Before BlackRock Makes a Move
As noted by market expert Sam Daodu in a Tuesday reportXRP-related ETF assets soared to a high of $1.6 billion in January before experiencing outflows of around $500 million, bringing total assets down to around $1 billion.
According to McClurg’s outlook, BlackRock is unlikely to move unless certain market signals become undeniable. One of the clearest indicators would be sustained growth in existing XRP ETF assets.
While assets peaked at $1.6 billion in January 2026 and have since stabilized at nearly $1 billion, an increase toward $3 billion or more would demonstrate robust and sustainable demand.
Canary CEO says BlackRock pays close attention to market capitalization and investor appetite. If the size of current XRP ETFs were to triple, the business case for launching a competing product would become much more compelling.
Competitive dynamics could also accelerate the timeline. BlackRock is not usually the first to enter a new segment, but it rarely allows its competitors to dominate unchallenged.
McClurg noted that it may not be long before BlackRock feels obligated to respond if another large company files for a spot XRP ETF. A rival’s move could force BlackRock’s hand sooner than its current projected window.
Perhaps the most decisive factor would be the demand for institutional clients. If state pension funds, university endowments, or sovereign wealth funds began allocating XRP within their approved asset classes, this change would likely serve as a clear signal.
Corrugated connection
Notably, BlackRock’s relationship with the broader Ripple ecosystem may already be closer than many realize. The company’s tokenized treasury fund, BUIDL, uses Ripple’s system. RLUSD stablecoin as a guarantee.
This integration suggests a certain degree of familiarity and comfort with Ripple-related infrastructure, even in the absence of an XRP ETF. Such links could potentially reduce the distance between market surveillance and formal market entry, if demand accelerates.
For now, BlackRock remains on the sidelines of the XRP ETF space. Whether it intervenes by the end of 2026, in 2027 or later will likely depend on one central factor: whether institutional demand becomes strong enough that staying away poses a greater risk.
At the time of writing, XRP was trading at $1.34, down 8% over the past week.
Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com
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