Ethereum (ETH) slipped on Tuesday, trading just above $2,080 as the broader crypto market weakened – a level well below the critical threshold identified by expert Ali Martinez as the trigger for a sustained macro uptrend.
In an analysis shared on social media platform
Technical crossroads for Ethereum
Martinez described the current price development in technical terms, suggesting Ethereum could form an ascending triangle. In this scenario, he places a “line in the sand” at around $1,800 and notes that this figure closely overlaps the price range of 0.80 MVRV at around $1,880.
MVRV, or Market Value to Realized Value, compares the market price of an asset with the average price paid for the asset by holders; Martinez describes the 0.80 band as an “average reception” indicator that has historically marked cycle lows.
When the band is reached, he said, Ethereum and the broader cryptocurrency market are often in a state of “extreme pain,” a phase in which selling tends to peter out and long-term holders step in.
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Beyond the ascending triangle scenario, Martinez recognized a more bearish alternative. If the price of Ethereum is indeed confined within a parallel channel rather than an ascending triangle, he warned that a deeper reset is possible.
In this case, it is looking at the outer limits of the channel at around $1,550 and $1,070. To support these observations, he pointed to URPD – the UTXO Realized Price Distribution, a tool that maps the prices at which existing ETH last moved.
Martinez calls this distribution “market memory,” because it identifies levels where large groups of coins have been acquired and defensive buying pressure is likely to appear.
$4,900 short term and $5,900 long term
According to Martinez’s URPD reading, the largest buy walls are below 0.80. MVRV band are approximately $1,584, $1,238 and $1,089. These price groups, if tested, could generate significant support as holders who have bought at these levels attempt to defend their positions.
Martinez estimates the buildup will likely occur by “a few thousand”; However, he claimed that the “starter engine” for the next major upward leg was for Ethereum to reclaim its realized price at $2,500.
If Ethereum can break and hold above $2,500, Martinez says technical issues and chain signals would indicate a “target-rich environment”.
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His analysis places a near-term rise towards $4,900 – a level he links to the ascending triangle structure – and ultimately towards the 2.40 MVRV band, near $5,900, which would represent a new all-time high for Ethereum price.
Reaching these zones, according to the expert, would confirm that average holders have returned to profit and that the market has decisively moved from accumulation to a broader speculative phase.
Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com
