Bitcoin is once again attracting the attention of Wall Street. Two of the largest American banks, Citigroup and JPMorganpresent new scenarios that predict a strong rise in Bitcoin over the next year, based on regulation, market structure and institutional positioning.
The timing is remarkable. Bitcoin has already undergone a sharp correction, major liquidations and renewed regulatory scrutiny. Today, the big banks say that the worst may be behind us.
Citi sees Bitcoin rising as regulations ease
Citigroup has set a 12-month Bitcoin price target of $143,000citing growing adoption and a more favorable regulatory environment. At the time of his note, Bitcoin was trading around $87,932, suggesting significant upside if these conditions persist.
“We expect regulatory enablers to drive additional adoption and flows. » » said Citi.
The bank highlighted policy changes in the United States following President Donald Trump’s renewed support for digital assets. The move coincided with the dropping of lawsuits against major crypto companies and new momentum in Congress, where lawmakers confirmed that a surge in long-awaited crypto market structure legislation was expected in January.
We had a great call today with the presidents @SenatorTimScott And @JohnBoozman which confirmed that a markup for Clarity would be arriving in January. Thanks to their leadership, as well as @RepFrenchHill And @CongressmanGT In the House, we are closer than ever to historic crypto adoption…
Citi also acknowledged the recent volatility. Bitcoin fell sharply in November, losing more than $18,000its biggest drop in dollar terms since May 2021, as investors’ risk appetite weakened and concerns about tech valuations grew.
Nevertheless, Citi believes that prices will stabilize after this reset.
“Token prices are closer to statistical measures of value based on user activity following the price reversal from October highs.” noted the bank.
In a more optimistic scenario, Citi sees Bitcoin reaching $189,000while its bearish outlook places it near $78,000.
Why JPMorgan thinks the worst of the sell-off is over
JPMorgan’s outlook last month focused less on regulation and more on market mechanics. Bank Thinks Bitcoin Could Reach approximately $170,000 in the next 6 to 12 monthsdriven by a completed debt reduction cycle.
“The message from the recent stabilization is that perpetual deleveraging is probably behind us. » » wrote JPMorgan analysts.
They pointed to record liquidations on October 10, the largest in crypto history, followed by more modest sales in November. Since then, futures positioning has returned to more normal levels.
Bitcoin’s Growing Comparison to Gold
JPMorgan also compared Bitcoin to gold, noting that gold’s increasing volatility has improved Bitcoin’s attractiveness on a risk-adjusted basis. Based on this framework, the bank claims that Bitcoin is still trading well below its theoretical fair value.
Bitcoin is increasingly analyzed as a macro-asset. This change is significant and everyone is closely watching where prices go next.
