Ethereum (ETH) struggled during the first quarter of the year and the first part of the second, but it managed to maintain a crucial line near the $2,000 mark.
A new report from market expert Sam Daodu outlines three potential paths for ETH for the remainder of 2026, with each scenario linked to catalysts that could push the network’s leading altcoin above $4,000.
Bullish path for Ethereum
by Daodu analysis starts with price action. Ethereum, he notes, has been on a downward trend since the start of the year, with only a short-lived recovery. ETH started 2026 around $3,100, then dropped to $1,743 in February, its weakest point since early 2023.
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After that, the token spent much of the year moving sideways between around $2,000 and $2,400, suggesting consolidation rather than a sharp rebound. A key part of the report is the following Glamsterdam upgradewhich Daodu believes could be the deciding factor on whether ETH returns to the $4,000 level in 2026.
In its bullish scenario, Glamsterdam is expected to launch as planned in June. The upgrade would reduce gas fees by 78.6% and increase throughput up to 10,000 transactions per second.
At the same time, news about the upgrade is expected to accelerate Ethereum exchange traded fund (ETF), and the report also assumes that Bitcoin (BTC) exceeds $90,000. With these conditions in place, Daodu suggests that ETH could surpass $4,000 in the third quarter and end the year between $5,000 and $7,500.
ETH Could Retest February 2026 Low
In the basic case, the story is more discreet. Daodu expects Glamsterdam to ship, but without strong immediate market reaction. ETF inflows remain positive but slow, and Bitcoin is expected to surpass $85,000 without causing a decisive breakout that would sharply revive risk appetite.
In this scenario, Ethereum is still expected to clear $3,000 in the third quarter, then test $4,000 during the latter part of 2026. The year-end result is more restrained, however: ETH would close between $3,000 and $4,200.
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The case of the bear is built around delays and macroeconomic pressures. Daodu assumes that Glamsterdam is either pushed back to the last quarter of the year or launched with deployment bugs.
He also adds a more risk-free environment by predicting that Bitcoin could fall below $70,000, due to inflation data or the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) renewed stance, as well as the return of ETF outflows.
If these assumptions hold true, ETH will likely fail to hold current support and fall below $2,085. From there, the report suggests that Ethereum could retest the February 2026 low near $1,743, then end the year at or below today’s price.
In this bearish scenario, the idea of Ethereum surpassing $4,000 would likely be a discussion for 2027 rather than remaining a target for 2026. For now, the leading altcoin is trading at $2,134.
Featured image created with OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com
