Crypto Markets Today will be down for a period of time starting Wednesday. We’ll be back on January 5 with your regular trading update and market analysis. I wish you and yours a wonderful holiday season!
It’s yet another risk-free day in the crypto market, with Cardano-based Midnight Network’s governance token NIGHT sliding 22% in 24 hours, the worst performer among the top 100 tokens in terms of market value.
Although the reason for this sell-off is unclear, it is not the only one trading in the red. Non-serious tokens PUMP fell 13% and MNT, XMR and ZEC each fell as much as 8%.
Bitcoin the largest cryptocurrency by market value, fell back below $88,000 after failing to gain a foothold above the $90,000 resistance level on Monday.
Volatility could pick up later on Tuesday following the release of third-quarter US GDP, which is expected to show the economy remained strong in the three months through September.
Positioning of derivative products
- Cumulative open interest (OI) on globally listed BTC futures remained unchanged at around 670,000 BTC for over a week. Over the past 24 hours, it has fallen slightly, indicating a continued lack of participation in leveraged markets.
- Participation in SOL futures is increasing, as indicated by the rise in OI to 58.75 million SOL, the highest since October 10.
- The OI on XRP futures increased by 1.28% while that of ETH fell by 1.7%.
- Perpetual funding rates for most major cryptocurrencies remain positive, if only slightly, indicating a slight bias towards bullish bets. BCH and LINK stand out with negative rates.
- On the CME, BTC futures open interest continues to decline alongside weak demand for spot ETFs, a sign of declining institutional interest in carry trades.
- On Deribit, biases in BTC and ETH options strengthened following BTC’s failure to sustain gains above $90,000.
- Beyond December, positioning appears bearish, with the $80,000 put being the most popular play option expiring in January.
- As for block flows, strangles and straddles cumulatively represent 35% of the total over the last 24 hours. Buyers of these strategies position themselves primarily based on volatility.
- In the case of ETH, call spreads have dominated block flows.
Symbolic discussion
- Only a small fraction of crypto tokens introduced in 2025 are still worth more than when they debuted, according to an analysis of 118 tokens.
- According to Memento Research, only 15% are trading above their token generation event (TGE) valuation. The median token is down approximately 71% in fully diluted value (FDV) and 66% in market cap.
- The biggest losses came from tokens with the highest starting valuations. Among the 28 tokens with a starting FDV of $1 billion or more, none are above water and the group has a median decline of 81%.
- Big name launches brought the average down. The FDV-weighted performance shows a decline of 61.5%, much worse than the decline of 33.3% for an equally weighted basket.
- Tokens related to infrastructure, decentralized finance, and artificial intelligence dominated TGE’s tallies, and their performance was negative overall. Perpetual DEXs were the few to stand out, helped by the strong performance of platforms like Hyperliquid and Aster.
