Key takeaways
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US CPI data could be the main catalyst for crypto gains in the last week of October.
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The bullish scenario could lead to favorable rate cuts, while bearish data could delay them.
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The crypto, ETF, and stock market turned bullish this week.
It’s not every day that markets latch on to a single data release – let alone a Friday.
With the US government shut down for the third week in a row, almost all official economic reports are frozen.
That leaves September’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) as the only data standing between investors and the Federal Reserve’s next move.
In global markets, this strange situation has sparked a wave of cautious optimism.
Cryptocurrencies, stocks and ETFs are all climbing as traders position themselves for milder inflation – a development that could finally justify rate cuts next week.
Bitcoin (BTC) has already surpassed $111,000, thanks to easing trade tensions between the United States and China and a broader rebound in risk appetite in global markets.
The CPI print, scheduled for 12:30 UTC, is expected to be the most important data point of the month.
It comes just days before the Federal Reserve’s Oct. 29-30 policy meeting and coincides with a high-level Sino-U.S. dialogue aimed at de-escalating tariffs – both key to risk sentiment.
Cryptocurrency-related ETFs are already seeing signs of a renaissance.
While U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $1.23 billion in outflows last week, global crypto ETF inflows jumped to $5.95 billion, the highest this quarter.
Markets walk on a tight line:
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A softer CPI could open the door to a rate cut of 25 to 50 basis points, freeing up liquidity and pushing Bitcoin towards $113,000 to $114,000.
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A higher figure could delay reductions and dampen momentum in risky assets.
Meanwhile, Ethereum (ETH) and Solana (SOL) have been quietly gaining momentum, each gaining between 3-5% on growing confidence in an easing cycle.
Hints of a return to quantitative easing (QE) are resurfacing.
Fed Chairman Jerome Powell recently suggested that large-scale asset purchases could resume once the government reopens — a move that would flood the financial system with new liquidity.
QE typically involves the Fed buying Treasurys and mortgage-backed securities with newly created money, thereby reducing borrowing costs and fueling demand for assets.
For cryptocurrencies, this is historically a bullish signal. Every major rally in digital assets since 2017 has aligned with some form of monetary easing, and traders see this cycle following the same path.
The Crypto Fear & Greed Index rose to 27 – cautious optimism, but far from euphoria.
