Key notes
- Hougan claims that strong institutional flows have delayed recognition of the crypto winter that began in January 2025.
- He noted that the market may be closer to the end of this bearish phase.
- Bitcoin fell nearly $73,000 on February 3 before rebounding above $76,000.
Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan says the current crypto winter started much earlier than most market participants thought.
In a recent article on
Bitcoin
BTC
$76,148
24h volatility:
2.8%
Market capitalization:
$1.52 million
Flight. 24h:
$74.78 billion
is currently down 40% from its October 2025 high of $126,080, while Ethereum
ETH
$2,262
24h volatility:
1.2%
Market capitalization:
$273.86 billion
Flight. 24h:
$45.46 billion
fell 53%.
The Crypto Fear and Greed Index has reached “extreme fear” levels, putting the market in wintry conditions, Hougan explained.
The expert noted that price developments over the past year have followed two distinct timelines.
– Matt Hougan (@Matt_Hougan) February 3, 2026
Retail-focused assets entered a bearish phase in early 2025, but institutionally accessible cryptocurrencies remained supported much later.
I say crypto moved on two timelines last year: retail entered a bear market in January, institutional didn’t until the fourth quarter.
– Matt Hougan (@Matt_Hougan) February 3, 2026
Bitcoin and Ethereum benefited from ETF and Digital Asset Treasury inflows throughout the year and fell by approximately 10.3% to 19.9%.
During this time, many altcoins plunged between 61.9% and 74.7% due to lack of institutional access.
Hougan noted that ETFs and related vehicles acquired approximately 744,417 BTC during this period, worth approximately $75 billion.
He argued that without this demand, Bitcoin could have traded closer to a 60% decline much earlier.
The Bitwise exec added that crypto winters typically last around 13 months. He believes the market is probably closer to the end of the downturn than the beginning.
Bitcoin Volatility Continues
Bitcoin fell as low as $73,000 on Feb. 3 before rebounding above $76,000 after the passage of a U.S. funding bill, avoiding a government shutdown and mitigating near-term macroeconomic risk.
However, Santiment reported around $30 million in DeFi liquidations and suggested continued leverage cleaning.
📊 Bitcoin’s plunge to $72.8k immediately saw a decent rebound after clarity was provided by a bill passed, preventing a US government shutdown. However, there was still $30 million in DeFi liquidations. Our analysis explores volatility and what comes next. 👇 pic.twitter.com/OyySycixmE
– Santiment (@santimentfeed) February 4, 2026
Over the past week, Bitcoin has fallen almost 14%. Current price levels are lower than Bitcoin traded during Trump’s inauguration in January 2025.
It is close to the areas tested when the trade war was announced last April.
Wallets holding between 10 and 10,000 BTC have sold approximately 50,181 coins over the past two weeks.
At the same time, retail addresses bought the dips. Historically, this situation of retail selling and buying by large holders has not supported sustained market growth, Santiment notes.
While some analysts expect the bear phase to last another six to nine months, many note that regulatory clarity could limit the decline compared to previous cycles, where Bitcoin drawdowns reached 80%.
following
Disclaimer: Coinspeaker is committed to providing unbiased and transparent reporting. This article is intended to provide accurate and current information, but should not be considered financial or investment advice. Because market conditions can change quickly, we encourage you to verify the information for yourself and consult a professional before making any decisions based on this content.
A crypto journalist with over 5 years of industry experience, Parth has worked with leading media outlets in the crypto and finance world, gaining experience and expertise in the field after surviving both bear and bull markets over the years. Parth is also the author of 4 self-published books.
Parth Dubey on LinkedIn
