The median salary in the prediction markets industry is $175,000, according to data compiled by PredictionJobs. That’s well above the average U.S. salary, but the real question for anyone considering a move into this industry is how forecast market salaries compare to those in technology and finance, the two industries most likely to draw from the same talent pool. Here’s what the numbers actually show.
How much do prediction markets pay?
Engineering is the highest paying field in the prediction markets, averaging $191,250, just ahead of Quant & Trading at $182,000 and Legal & Compliance at $178,000. Product, Marketing & Growth, Design and Operations round out the list, with Operations being the lowest at $115,000.
Salary also varies by company. Novig tops the list with $190,000, followed by Kalshi with $175,000 and Polymarket with $170,000. Rothera Markets and Fanatics Markets pay between $150,000 and $155,000, or about $40,000 between the highest and lowest payers on this list.
Prediction Market Salaries vs. Tech, Finance, and Crypto
Faced with Big Tech, prediction markets are holding up better than expected. Levels.fyi estimates the national median total compensation for software engineers at large tech companies at around $192,000, almost identical to the expected compensation for engineers in the marketplace. However, big tech is getting ahead at the next level: staff and key engineers at Google or Meta regularly clear between $400,000 and over $600,000 once discounted equity is taken into account, a forecast level the market has yet to reach.
The gap is greater compared to quantitative and traditional finance. Entry-level quantitative researchers at companies like Jane Street, Citadel, or Two Sigma typically start at around $200,000 to over $300,000 once guaranteed bonuses are included, and senior researchers regularly reach seven figures. Even Prediction Markets’ highest paid role, Quant & Trading at $182,000, falls below the quant finance starting point.
Crypto and Web3 fall somewhere in between. The average salary for a Web3 developer is around $145,000, below the prediction market median, while senior or specialized positions like ZK research and protocol engineering can reach upwards of $300,000 to $500,000. In other words: When it comes to prediction market salaries relative to tech and finance, prediction markets beat the crypto average, roughly match the big tech median, and lag behind quantitative finance across the board.
Base, bonus and equity: comparison of total compensation
Salary alone does not reflect how these industries actually pay people. In quantitative hedge funds, bonuses typically represent 40-70% of total salary, and module-based funds like Millennium or Citadel hand traders a direct share of the P&L they generate, an upside forecast structure that markets do not currently offer. Crypto works the same way: token grants often add 30-50% to base salary at well-funded protocols, although this benefit is volatile and can disappear if token prices fall. Big Tech relies on RSUs, so total compensation at senior levels can double or triple base salary.
PredictionJobs’ numbers, on the other hand, are largely base or cash salaries, and few companies in the prediction market currently offer significant upside potential in stock or tokens. Thus, market forecast salaries relative to finance are closer to the median than once bonuses, P&L shares, and equity are added. For top performers, the actual gap is larger than base salary alone suggests.
Conclusion
Prediction markets pay competitively at the median level: they roughly match Big Tech and exceed the average Web3 salary, with engineering and quantitative roles leading the way internally. Where they fail is at the top: senior quantitative researchers, engineers, and crypto specialists can outperform their prediction market counterparts several times over once bonuses, stock P&Ls, and equity come into play.
This gap will likely narrow as the industry grows. Prediction market companies are still young compared to Wall Street or the FAANGs, and salary structures tend to catch up once an industry raises more money and starts competing more for the same people.
