The March CPI and PPI both landed, painting a picture of accelerating energy-related inflation in the run-up to the April 29 FOMC decision.
March CPI: energy-related acceleration – April 10, 2026
The Bureau of Labor Statistics released March Consumer Price Index data on April 10. The overall index increased by 0.9% on a seasonally adjusted basis in March, after increasing by 0.3% in February, and by 3.3% year-on-year before seasonal adjustment, a significant increase from 2.4% in February.
The main driver was energy: the energy index rose 10.9% in March, with gasoline prices rising 21.2%, accounting for almost three-quarters of the overall monthly increase. Core inflation (the all-items index minus food and energy) rose 2.6% over the past 12 months, with the housing sector up 3.0% year-on-year.
The acceleration from 2.4% to 3.3% is the headline number traders are now relying on directly heading into the April 28-29 FOMC meeting. The question is whether policymakers view energy-related inflation as transitory or as a signal that the rate trajectory for the second half of 2026 needs to be reassessed.
The Fed held steady between 3.50% and 3.75% at the March 18 meeting, revised its core inflation forecast to 2.7% for 2026, and explicitly flagged geopolitical uncertainty and oil price pressures as major risks to the outlook.
Rate-sensitive assets have historically reacted to CPI surprises and Fed decisions in either direction.
BTC/USD, ETH/USD and all dollar-denominated pairs on Kraken Pro are the most relevant markets during this period.
March PPI: lower than expectations, but accelerated annual rate – April 14, 2026
The Bureau of Labor Statistics released March Producer Price Index data on April 14. Final demand prices rose 0.5% on a seasonally adjusted basis in March, below consensus expectations of 1.1%, with the increase driven entirely by a 1.6% advance in final demand goods prices. Final demand services remained unchanged.
On an annual basis, the PPI increased by 4.0% for the twelve months ended March, up from 3.4% in February and the strongest twelve-month gain since February 2023.
The subdued monthly figure was seen as partial relief by markets, although analysts noted that the March data likely reflected only the initial phase of the energy shock, with further impact on transport, manufacturing and logistics costs expected in the following months.
Economists estimate that core PCE inflation (the Fed’s preferred gauge, released on April 30) rose about 0.2% in March, which would translate to an annual rate of 3.1%. This figure will be confirmed on April 30, alongside the ECB’s decision.
Relevant on Kraken Pro: BTC/USD, ETH/USD and macro-sensitive USD pairs.
Banking results for the first quarter of 2026: six reports, six beats – April 13-15, 2026
The bulk of the first-quarter 2026 earnings season unfolded across the board this week, with all six big banks reporting results that beat analysts’ expectations for revenue and earnings per share.
Goldman Sachs reported EPS of $17.55 on revenue of $17.23 billion, representing a 25% year-over-year increase in earnings per share. Investment banking fees increased 48% year-over-year to $2.84 billion, driven by a significant increase in completed M&A volumes and strong capital markets activity.
JPMorgan Chase reported EPS of $5.94 versus consensus of $5.49, with revenue of $50.5 billion, up 10% year-over-year. Markets revenue increased 20% to $11.6 billion, supported by strength in fixed income, commodities and currencies. Net interest income reached $25.5 billion, up 9% year-over-year.
Citigroup reported EPS of $3.06 on revenue of $24.63 billion, its best quarterly revenue in a decade and a 56% year-over-year increase in earnings per share. Fixed income revenue rose 13% to $5.2 billion, while equities rose 39% to $2.1 billion.
Wells Fargo reported EPS of $1.60 on revenue of $21.4 billion, up 6% year over year, with average loans up 10% and average deposits up 6%. The bank returned $4 billion to shareholders through share buybacks during the quarter.
Morgan Stanley reported EPS of $2.68 on revenue of $17.89 billion, beating consensus estimates. Bank of America reported EPS of $0.98 on revenue of $28.37 billion, also above expectations.
Overall, this week’s results picture is one of resilient institutional conditions: trading floors benefited from elevated volatility due to geopolitical uncertainty and the energy shock, investment bank pipelines remained active, and credit quality remained broadly stable.
For traders using bank earnings as a gauge of institutions’ risk appetite, this week’s collective signal was constructive, even as forward guidance from several institutions flagged macroeconomic uncertainty as a continued watch item heading into the second quarter.
Relevant on Kraken Pro: BTC/USD, ETH/USD and macro-sensitive USD pairs.
Upcoming events:
CME and Deribit BTC/ETH Monthly Options Expiry – April 24, 2026
The last Friday in April marks the monthly options expiration for BTC and ETH on CME and Deribit. Deribit’s most recent weekly expiration on April 10 settled approximately $2.2 billion in notional across BTC and ETH contracts. April 24 represents monthly settlement, typically the largest expiration event in a given month.
This expiration comes immediately before the most macro-intensive period of the month (FOMC on April 29, PCE and ECB on April 30), meaning that positioning entering and exiting expiration may reflect traders’ risk management around these central bank events as much as the settlement mechanisms themselves.
Options expiration events create conditions, not outcomes. Market makers adjust delta hedges in the days following settlement, and the relationship between spot prices and the open interest distribution can influence intraday behavior around the settlement window.
The BTC/USD and ETH/USD spot and derivatives markets on Kraken Pro are the most relevant.
FOMC Rate Decision – April 28-29, 2026
The Federal Open Market Committee meets on April 28-29, with a decision and press conference on April 29. This is the most important scheduled event for the rest of the month.
The Fed held steady between 3.50% and 3.75% at the March 18 meeting, raised its core inflation forecast to 2.7% for 2026, and explicitly flagged the Middle East conflict and rising oil prices as key sources of uncertainty. The March CPI, a headline reading of 3.3% year-on-year, driven by a 10.9% rise in energy, was released after that meeting and is now the main new data point ahead of April 29.
Traders evaluate two scenarios before making their decision. If policymakers view energy-related inflation as a temporary external shock consistent with maintaining current rates without revising the rate path, markets could interpret this as business as usual. If the March CPI and the subsequent acceleration in the PPI are treated as evidence of growing inflationary pressure requiring a more cautious approach to any potential easing, this recalibrates expectations for the second half of 2026. The March retail sales data, released on April 21, arrives in the pre-FOMC window and will add a consumer demand dimension to the picture ahead of the committee meeting.
Historically, rate-sensitive assets have reacted to Fed decisions and accompanying guidance in both directions. Past market behavior is not a reliable indicator of future results.
BTC/USD, ETH/USD, and all dollar-denominated spot, margin, and futures pairs on Kraken Pro are relevant.
ECB rate decision — April 30, 2026
The European Central Bank Governing Council meets on April 29-30, with President Lagarde’s decision and press conference on April 30, the day after the FOMC and the same day as the PCE release.
The ECB kept all three key rates unchanged at its March 19 meeting, with the deposit facility remaining at 2.0%. The Governing Council raised its headline inflation forecast to 2.6% for 2026 and cut its GDP growth forecast to 0.9% for the year, citing the impact of the Middle East conflict on commodity markets, real incomes and business confidence.
The decision of April 30 comes in a context where the same dynamic of energy inflation is at play throughout the euro zone. Lagarde’s speech at the press conference on the balance between inflation vigilance and growth risk will be the main signal for traders in euro-denominated markets.
With FOMC and ECB decisions falling on consecutive days, with PCE also released on April 30, the last week of the month is a concentrated window of macroeconomic events. Past market behavior in response to central bank decisions is not a reliable indicator of future results.
Relevant on Kraken Pro: pairs denominated BTC/EUR, ETH/EUR and EUR.
Also this period
Advance retail sales for March will be released on April 21, delayed to April 16 by the Census Bureau, arriving a week ahead of the FOMC and providing a direct read on the resilience of consumer demand under current energy price conditions.
The PCE price index, the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, will be released on April 30 alongside the ECB’s decision.
The first weekly U.S. jobless claims are released every Thursday (April 16 and 23), maintaining a continuous check on the temperature of the labor market through the end of the month.
Final context
This week’s banking results collectively confirmed that institutional conditions remained resilient throughout the first quarter despite the energy shock and elevated macroeconomic uncertainty. The question for the rest of April is whether the inflation data (CPI at 3.3% YoY, PPI at 4.0% YoY) changes the Federal Reserve’s assessment of the rate path at its April 29 meeting.
The ECB follows the next day. For traders exposed to USD or EUR denominated markets, it is more useful to have clear thinking about a scenario before this two-day window than to react to either decision in isolation.
This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past market behavior is not a reliable indicator of future results. Trading involves risks.
